IDX Returns to 6,000 in 2026: Who is Buying as Foreign Capital Exits?

The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) has successfully breached the 6,000 psychological level, supported by buying actions from domestic investors, particularly retail players. At the close of 13 July 2026, the index strengthened by 113.48 points or 1.92% to 6,186.36, and remained at 6,196.43 as of 30 July.

This recovery follows a difficult first half of the year. From an initial position of 8,748.13 at the start of the year, the IHSG underwent a correction of more than 30%, while foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp71.17 trillion as of 30 July. Two weeks after the index returned to 6,000, the market is now being tested by a new variable: the change in leadership at Bank Indonesia.

Two prominent factors underpin this recovery. First, S&P Global Ratings maintained Indonesia’s debt rating at BBB with a stable outlook, signalling that international rating agencies still view Indonesia’s fiscal fundamentals and financial sector resilience as sufficiently strong. Second, selective buying has been concentrated on large-cap stocks whose valuations were most heavily pressured during the foreign sell-off wave. Historically, the combination of rating catalysts and discounted valuations often triggers fund rotation.

Regarding the previous decline, the OJK noted three main causes for the index’s weakness during the first half of 2026: global uncertainty, investor perception of domestic policies, and the rebalancing of global funds. Macroeconomic data reinforced this pressure: Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in June, returning to the contraction zone, while annual inflation rose to 3.34% yoy, and the May 2026 trade balance recorded a deficit of US$1.61 billion—the first deficit since April 2020.

The leadership transition at Bank Indonesia also looms large. On 25 July 2026, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo resigned for personal reasons. The Board of Governors appointed Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti as the interim Governor effective 26 July 2026. According to the research team at Pluang, this transition is a crucial step that could alter the economic policy landscape, including benchmark interest rate directions, rupiah stabilisation strategies, and fiscal-monetary coordination.

Data indicates that the domestic investor base is expanding even as foreign capital exits. Total capital market investors in Indonesia reached 28.96 million SID by 30 June 2026, a 42.3% increase compared to the same period the previous year. The Pluang research team noted that ownership is shifting from foreign investors to domestic investors, particularly retail investors, during periods of price pressure. This redistribution of ownership will likely determine the investor experience in the next market cycle.