IDX Assesses Impact of S&P DJI Watchlist Warning, Potential Outflows Estimated at Trillions of Rupiah
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) estimates that the exposure of Indonesian stocks/instruments held within ETFs/ETPs linked to the S&P/Dow Jones indices reaches around US$200 million, or approximately Rp3.5-4 trillion. However, this figure does not automatically reflect the potential foreign outflow from Indonesia.
In its Country Classification – 2026/2027 Watchlist announcement released on 7 July 2026, S&P DJI placed Indonesia on the 2027 Watchlist. This means Indonesia is now on the index provider’s monitoring list for a possible classification change at its next annual review in 2027. Indonesia, currently classified as Emerging, could potentially be reclassified as Special Measures or Frontier.
IDX Director of Trading and Member Regulation, Irvan Susandy, said the exchange is still calculating in detail the amount of funds potentially affected by the decision.
“I’ve heard from several parties that it’s around US$200 million, perhaps around Rp3.5-Rp4 trillion, and now we are looking for the exact figure and working out what and how much might flow out,” Irvan told reporters at the IDX building in Jakarta on Wednesday (8/7/2026).
Regarding potential outflows, Irvan believes there is still room for Indonesia to make improvements so that the impact can be minimised. This is because the decision to place Indonesia on the watchlist does not automatically lead to a classification change in the near term.
According to him, S&P DJI has given an evaluation period of roughly one year before making a final decision at its next review. Therefore, the IDX hopes that various improvements and engagement with the index provider will yield a more positive assessment, reducing the risk of outflows.
“We hope that in the near term we can make improvements and that they will issue a positive statement on this matter, because it is not the case that once the announcement is out, they will downgrade us to frontier status next week or next month,” said Irvan.
He also emphasised that Indonesia’s current status remains in the Emerging Market category. Besides the option of reclassification to Frontier Market, S&P DJI also has a Special Measures category, so the evaluation process remains open and has not led to a final decision.
Separately, based on a review of public ETF/ETP products using S&P DJI indices, the estimated material exposure to Indonesia stands at around Rp8.3 trillion to Rp8.5 trillion, assuming an exchange rate of Rp18,000/US$.
This figure is not the index’s assets under management, but rather an estimate of the value of Indonesian stocks/instruments held within ETFs/ETPs linked to the S&P/Dow Jones indices.
If only the 12 main products are counted, total exposure stands at around Rp8.29 trillion. If borderline products such as GMF and ASDV/ZPRA, each worth roughly Rp83 billion, are added, the total rises to around Rp8.46 trillion.
This list is estimated to cover around 95% of the material exposure of public S&P/Dow Jones ETF/ETP products to Indonesia. There are still other small products not included in the list above, but their contribution is thought to be limited given their relatively small AUM and Indonesia weightings.