ICCT Study: Zero-Emission Vehicle Transition Could Prevent Premature Deaths

A recent study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) indicates that a transition to zero-emission vehicles has the potential to reduce premature deaths caused by air pollution from the land transport sector. The study, titled ‘Health Benefits of Zero-Emission Vehicles Through 2050’, states that land transport emissions in Indonesia cause approximately 44,700 premature deaths and 19,800 new cases of childhood asthma each year. This figure equates to one premature death every 12 minutes and one new childhood asthma case every 26 minutes. Senior Researcher at ICCT, Aditya Mahalana, presented these findings in Jakarta, noting the severe health impact. Globally, land transport contributes nearly half of the annual exposure limit for outdoor fine particulate matter recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), making it a critical sector for air pollution control. The study finds that pollution contributions are not evenly distributed across vehicle types. Heavy vehicles, although comprising only about 2 per cent of Indonesia’s land transport fleet, contribute more than half of nitrogen oxide (NOₓ) and PM2.5 emissions. Meanwhile, light-duty vehicles dominate emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and carbon monoxide (CO). The research also suggests that transport pollution could widen global health inequalities. Under current policies, high-income countries are projected to see a roughly 48 per cent decrease in transport-related premature deaths by 2050, whereas upper-middle-income countries are expected to experience an increase of more than 50 per cent, and low- and lower-middle-income countries an increase of over 200 per cent. The ICCT employed two scenarios in its analysis. The ‘Baseline 2025’ scenario assumes conditions continue under existing policies without additional measures such as stricter emission standards, electrification, or improved fuel quality. The ‘Ambitious Electrification’ scenario assumes near 100 per cent electrification of land transport before 2050. Josh Miller, a Senior Director at ICCT and co-author of the study, stated that population growth, an ageing population, and an increasing number of vehicles will continue to raise the health burden from land transport if current policies remain unchanged. The ICCT concludes that a global transition to zero-emission vehicles is one of the most impactful policies for mitigating climate change while simultaneously reducing the health impacts of land transport air pollution. The organisation also assesses that tightening emission standards, using cleaner fuels, fleet renewal programmes, vehicle retrofitting, and implementing low-emission zones can provide short-term health benefits while accelerating the benefits of electrification.