House Prices Contract, a Buying Opportunity Before They Rise Again?

The national property sector is showing unusual movement at the start of the second quarter of 2026. Rumah123’s April Flash Report reveals that the national property price curve has contracted by 0.4% amid a Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation surge to 4.76% (YoY). This situation is viewed as an opportunity being exploited by new investor groups, particularly professional women. The current property price decline is considered a competitive condition in the market cycle. Historically, low-price phases serve as early indicators before upward price adjustments occur. This is driven by construction costs rising to 19.97%, as well as increasing land prices and developer operational burdens. Fundamental market indicators show a contradictory structure with market prices. The national secondary home supply volume has dropped 7.8% (YoY). The Tangerang area remains a potential source with a 14.8% search share, surpassing South Jakarta (12.4%) and West Jakarta (9.3%). Units priced above Rp 3 billion, especially in self-contained areas like BSD City, demonstrate the most stable resilience. With Bank Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate holding at 4.75%, maintenance costs remain competitive for investors to accumulate assets at low valuation points. Rumah123’s Head of Research, Marisa Jaya, stated that the second quarter of 2026 is an opportune period for portfolio balancing. Support from the ongoing Value Added Tax Borne by the Government (PPN DTP) incentive policy provides additional room for investors to enter the market.