Hormuz Strait Reopens, but Experts Warn of Weeks-Long Logistical Nightmare

The process of restoring maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is predicted to take weeks to months after a political agreement was reached to reopen the vital waterway. Industry players and maritime experts warn of significant logistical challenges in clearing the backlog of commercial vessels that accumulated during the conflict.

A memorandum of understanding signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday evening sets out the full reopening of the strait without fees for a minimum of 60 days. The diplomatic breakthrough initially sent global crude oil prices tumbling below USD 80 per barrel, driven by market hopes of a swift restoration of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.

However, analysts caution that the physical recovery of supply flows will be far more complex and gradual. Adam Sharpe, Vice President of Editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, highlighted that a phased reopening is the most likely scenario, involving traffic management mechanisms between Iran and Oman. Significant unanswered questions remain, including whether vessels will require prior authorisation, if Iran will impose service charges, and whether foreign naval escorts will be accepted.

Data from QuantCube Technology indicates that export departure volumes from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq have yet to show a significant surge. Tankers that completed loading at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura complex have been forced to anchor offshore, creating a floating queue. Kpler estimates that at least 118 fully laden tankers are currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf, and clearing this backlog alone could take 10 to 15 days.

Sharpe noted that priority access is likely to be given to oil and LNG tankers due to urgent global energy needs, leaving container ships and other cargo vessels facing much longer operational delays. The coordination of transit corridors, convoy systems, and safe passage windows will require tight collaboration between security authorities in Oman, the UAE, and Iran.

Furthermore, international naval forces must certify that the transit corridor is completely safe before war risk insurers will reactivate coverage. Without insurance, shipowners will refuse to move their fleets. Crews that were repositioned for alternative routes must also be remobilised, adding another layer of delay to the resumption of normal shipping operations.