High Rice Production Must Be Matched by Productivity Gains, Analysts Say

Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia researcher Eliza Mardian has stated that Indonesia’s achievement as the largest rice producer in Southeast Asia needs to be followed by increased agricultural productivity and farmer welfare to be sustainable in the long term. She said the achievement deserves appreciation as the result of farmers’ hard work and support from various government policies in boosting national food production. “We have achieved good results regarding rice. This deserves appreciation as the result of farmers’ hard work and policy support,” Eliza said in Jakarta on Tuesday. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) ranks Indonesia as the largest rice producer in Southeast Asia and fourth in the world after India, China, and Bangladesh. National rice production in 2025 was recorded at 34.69 million tonnes, an increase of around 4 million tonnes or 13.2 percent compared to the previous year’s 30.62 million tonnes. Additionally, the FAO estimates Indonesia’s rice stocks could potentially increase to 7.8 million tonnes in the 2026-2027 period. Currently, the government records that the government rice reserve (CBP) managed by Perum Bulog has exceeded 5 million tonnes. According to Eliza, Indonesia’s advantage in the Southeast Asian region is mainly supported by its large national rice production base, including a significant area of paddy fields. However, she noted that Indonesia’s rice productivity still lags behind Vietnam, which is able to produce higher output per unit of land area. “The government needs to reorient its priorities. Policies must shift from merely chasing production volume towards increasing sustainable productivity and improving farmer welfare,” she said. National rice productivity currently stands at around 5.2 tonnes per hectare, whereas Vietnam has reached approximately 6 tonnes per hectare. This situation, she continued, shows there is still room to improve the efficiency and productivity of rice cultivation in Indonesia. She said increasing productivity is crucial because future challenges for the agricultural sector involve not only meeting food needs but also climate change, land conversion, and farmer regeneration. Therefore, according to Eliza, agricultural policy should be directed at improving production efficiency, utilising technology, and strengthening farmers’ capacity so that harvests can continue to increase without solely relying on land expansion. “To become truly resilient and sustainable amidst climate and demographic uncertainties, Indonesia must dare to leave the comfort zone of total production figures and start seriously pursuing higher efficiency and productivity,” she stated. Meanwhile, Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) researcher Galau Muhammad cautioned that high rice production does not automatically reflect strong national food security. “You cannot equate it with overall food security when talking about annual rice production,” Galau said. According to him, food security is also determined by distribution efficiency, price stability, supply chain quality, and the public’s ability to access food equitably. Galau added that sustainable rice production must be accompanied by improvements in the distribution system and farmer welfare so that the benefits of increased production can be widely felt. He also noted that food policy needs to pay greater attention to small-scale farmers, who remain the backbone of national agricultural production, while strengthening the sector’s ability to cope with the impacts of climate change. “It is not just about the quantity of production we can achieve, but about the systemic supply chain, price stability at the household level, and farmer welfare,” he said. On the other hand, the government has stated that increasing agricultural productivity is also one of its main focuses to maintain rice self-sufficiency. The Ministry of Agriculture said this effort is being carried out through strengthening irrigation and pump systems, using superior seeds, agricultural mechanisation, and land optimisation to increase yields and the cropping index. Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman previously stated that the government has allocated around Rp5 trillion to strengthen irrigation, pump systems, and the provision of superior seeds to maintain agricultural productivity amid extreme weather risks. The programme includes managing up to 1.5 million hectares of land and providing 80,000 water pumps targeted to reach around 1 million hectares of paddy fields. Additionally, the government is promoting the use of superior varieties and agricultural mechanisation to increase productivity without relying entirely on land expansion. The Ministry of Agriculture noted that the superior rice seeds being developed have a potential yield of more than 8 tonnes per hectare, while efforts to modernise agricultural tools and machinery are expected to further improve farming efficiency and maintain the sustainability of national food production.