Heatwaves Predicted to Become an Annual Trend in Europe
Extreme heatwaves affecting Europe this summer are predicted to not be a temporary phenomenon. A number of scientists have warned that high temperatures could become a new recurring pattern every summer as climate change continues.
Temperatures in several European countries have broken records in recent weeks. The heatwave has triggered health problems, deaths, and disrupted transport services in countries such as Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland, while temperatures in parts of France exceeded 40 degrees Celsius.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group of climate scientists estimates that this year’s heatwave caused around 2,300 heat-related deaths across 12 European countries. According to WWA, the likelihood of such a heatwave occurring is now about 100 times greater than in 2003 and would have been nearly impossible 50 years ago.
“Heat-related mortality is likely to become an inherent feature of Europe’s hot climate,” said Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe.
Kluge stated that since the 1990s, the heat-related death rate has increased by an average of 52 cases per million population. There are no signs yet that this trend will abate.
Scientists note that the current heatwave is about 3.5 degrees Celsius hotter than in 1976 and two degrees Celsius higher than in 2003.
“Imagine this as a race where the starting line has been moved much closer to the finish line,” said Akshay Deoras, a scientist at the University of Reading.
The European climate monitoring agency Copernicus reported that the rate of warming in Europe is now double that of the 1980s. Based on WWA modelling, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at the current rate, heatwaves that previously occurred only every few decades are expected to become annual events.
One cause is the heat dome phenomenon, where a mass of hot air becomes trapped over a region for several days to several weeks. According to Deoras, this phenomenon is not new, but rising baseline temperatures are making its impact far more extreme.
University of Reading scientist Hannah Cloke said the conditions being experienced now are the result of accumulated greenhouse gas emissions over several decades.
“The climate system takes time to respond, so what we are feeling now is the consequence of past pollution,” she said.
A Copernicus report also showed that around 95 per cent of Europe experienced above-average temperatures throughout 2025. Cloke assessed that some impacts of climate change, such as the melting of Alpine glaciers, are already difficult to reverse.
The melting is expected to reduce the flow of major European rivers during the summer, increasing the risk of water crises and disrupting river transport.
Nevertheless, Cloke stressed that there is still an opportunity to mitigate the worst effects through carbon emission reductions and accelerated adaptation.
“Therefore, what we do now will determine the difference between summers that are merely difficult to live through in the future, and summers that are truly beyond our ability to survive,” she said.
The Lancet Countdown Europe estimates that around 62,000 people died from heat-related causes in Europe during 2024. That figure is projected to rise sharply by 2050 without adequate mitigation and adaptation measures.
Kluge noted that most buildings in Europe are designed to retain heat rather than release it. He therefore urged governments to accelerate building renovations and treat heatwaves as a predictable risk.
“Governments need to plan for heat management the way they prepare for winter flu: as a recurring, predictable challenge that requires permanent infrastructure, not an occasional crisis requiring emergency improvisation,” he said.
In addition to strengthening early warning systems, scientists also consider upgrading water infrastructure and reducing carbon emissions to be crucial steps to reduce the intensity, frequency, and duration of future heatwaves.