Hashim Warns Rupiah Could Fall to Rp22,000, Citing Key Risk

Jakarta, VIVA – Rupiah exchange-rate stability is one of the challenges to watch amid shifting global financial markets. Investor confidence in Indonesia’s capital market is also a concern, as it can affect foreign capital flows and the national economy.

Hashim Djojohadikusumo, chairman of the advisory board of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), warned that the rupiah could weaken to more than Rp22,000 per US dollar if foreign investors leave the Indonesian stock market in large numbers.

Hashim issued the warning in a speech at Kadin’s 2026 National Leadership Meeting (Rapimnas). He highlighted investor confidence, including the risk that global index provider MSCI could downgrade Indonesia’s stock market to stand-alone market status.

“If foreign investors leave our stock exchange, the rupiah could weaken further. I have calculated that it could reach Rp20,000 to Rp21,000, or perhaps even Rp22,000 per US dollar,” Hashim said in Jakarta on Thursday (29 October 2026).

He said a rupiah depreciation to those levels could increase the burden of foreign-currency borrowing and put greater pressure on the national economy. The issues facing the capital market therefore need to be addressed promptly so they do not develop into a broader risk.

Hashim said President Prabowo Subianto had tasked him with helping Investment and Downstreaming Minister and Danantara chief executive Rosan Roeslani, alongside government officials, to mitigate issues relating to MSCI.

“The MSCI issue must be mitigated. The President has tasked me with helping Mr Rosan and colleagues to ensure this problem does not get out of control,” he said.

He also pointed to concerns among domestic investors who invest in the stock market. According to data from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) included in his presentation, 32.7 million Indonesian citizens have stock investment accounts, or brokerage accounts.

Hashim said capital-market issues require serious attention because they affect the interests of millions of domestic investors. In his view, declining investor confidence could increase the risk of funds leaving Indonesia’s financial markets.

Hashim also cited alleged unhealthy practices, including stock-price manipulation, which he said could undermine the capital market’s credibility. He added that the limited number of shares available to the public, or free float, was another issue that needed to be addressed.