Has the Military Option Failed to Break Iran's Stance?

A number of experts and diplomats interviewed by Al Jazeera agree that US military attacks against Iran have not yet produced a decisive change in the direction of the conflict. Both Washington and Tehran are now assessed to have a growing understanding of the limits of their respective military powers, making the return to diplomatic channels through regional intermediaries the most probable scenario.

Some observers believe that Iran still possesses several strategic cards that can be used as leverage, particularly its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, others argue that the primary issue lies not solely in the balance of military power, but also in the profound crisis of trust between the two nations. Consequently, the success of any negotiation efforts will depend heavily on the presence of political guarantees and regional support.

Analysts also warn that a failure to reach an understanding regarding the security of international shipping lanes could trigger new escalations in the near future. Joey Hood, a former US diplomat stationed in the region, stated that the United States possesses a significant aerial advantage over Iran, which has allowed most airstrikes to successfully hit their intended targets. However, he noted that this military superiority does not mean that the military option can completely resolve the crisis, as both sides are increasingly aware of the limitations of their respective military capabilities.