Has GAM bitten off more than it can chew?

Shukor Rahman, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

It looks as if it has badly underestimated the new-found steely resolve of President Megawati Soekarnoputri. Two years ago, Indonesia was wracked by internal turmoil and the dithering leadership of Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur). This writer met with GAM leaders in Banda Aceh in March 2001 and also looked up their exiled leaders in Stockholm the following month. In Banda Aceh, they met at Kuala Tripa Hotel, reputedly the best in town and also a known GAM hangout.

The leaders had come in through secret entrances as the front was perpetually being watched. It was also at this hotel that five senior GAM officials were recently arrested. In Sweden, among the exiles the writer met were Dr Zaini Abdullah who told him that "nothing happens in Aceh without our knowledge." Zaini, who was among the delegates in Tokyo on May 16, is the heir apparent to GAM chief Hassan Tiro. The ailing Hassan, also an exile in Sweden, has always maintained that Aceh was never a part of the Dutch East Indies, and the Dutch therefore had no business to cede Aceh to become part of Indonesia.

Aceh is rich in petroleum and gas but everywhere you go, the claim that "Jakarta has bled Aceh dry and has given little back" seem to bear out.

Banda Aceh itself looks as if it has not progressed beyond the 1960s. The market looked primitive and eateries looked anything but inviting, while streets were also poorly lit. An international hotel chain has also abandoned a hotel project. At the small airport, crowds swamp ticket counters but only a few manage to obtain plane seats.

Just outside, villagers were jostling to sell fresh produce and fruits such as bananas and ciku at unbelievably low prices. An old man was even offering a bird in a cage and enquiries revealed it was a talking burung tiong! It is no longer safe to travel by road, and you do so at your own peril, one is told. Police or soldiers manning roadblocks or carrying out patrols do not care two hoots whether you are a foreigner, journalist or Red Crescent volunteer. Yes, life is dirt cheap here.

Several bloody massacres of villagers including women and children over the years have escaped the world's attention.

Rapes, murders, robberies, burning of homes and destruction of property have been perpetrated. Abductions take place almost daily, and people often disappear only to turn up very dead a few days later. Such brutal operations merely serve to alienate many of Aceh's four million people.

Many senior GAM leaders including those in Sweden still carry torture scars. There is no way Jakarta will let Aceh go. Period. Even GAM leaders concede that if Aceh goes, a few other regions will follow suit and this can only mean the end of the Indonesian Republic.

GAM should have been more flexible this time as the odds are heavily stacked in Jakarta's favour. Megawati has brought about a degree of political stability which few thought she was capable of.

The worst fears about last October's Bali bombings did not materialise. Islamic extremists have not retaliated for the U.S. invasion of Iraq and neither has the economy suffered. In actual fact, it is growing between three to four per cent. This stability has lowered interest rates, encouraged more companies to tap the capital markets, and miraculously made the rupiah (up 5.95 percent) Asia's best performing currency this year.

An Aceh community leader now domiciled in Malaysia suggested that GAM, the ulama (religious leaders) and intellectuals hold a congress to seek a common stand.

"People are sick and tired of the killings, bloodshed and suffering. It is a no-win situation that has driven Aceh to poverty," he said.

The proud, hardworking Acehnese whom even the Dutch had failed to subjugate certainly deserve better.

A distraught GAM delegate Mahmood Malik mentioned the possibility of seeking UN intervention. One cannot help thinking that he must certainly have an undying faith in the UN or it could have been a sign of total desperation as the world has clearly seen how impotent the UN has been in Palestine, Bosnia and more recently in Iraq.

So far only Sweden to her credit has offered sanctuary to GAM leaders, while the Henry Dunant Centre based in Geneva and Japan have tried to bring the adversaries to the negotiating table.

GAM must be pragmatic and realise it is fast running out of options. GAM is today outnumbered, outgunned and outmanoeuvred.

In Jakarta too, people seem to be more interested in the gyrations and pelvis pumping of sexy singer Inul Daratista who seem to be getting more television airtime and press coverage than any Indonesian including Megawati.

More than 10,000 people, mostly civilians have been killed in 27 years of simmering conflict. GAM has bitten off more than it can chew and it would be a real pity if innocent villagers and civilian population continued to pay the price.