Habibie reelection odds get short shrift

Habibie reelection odds get short shrift

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political analyst Riswandha Imawan believes
President B.J. Habibie's poor legitimacy, inability to control
other political forces and a misguided sense of optimism almost
rule him out of keeping the reins of power for a second term.

"He's too optimistic," said the lecturer of Gadjah Mada
University on Saturday. "He has forgotten that he could not rely
on the political maneuvers of (his aides) Akbar Tandjung, Adi
Sasono and others in the bureaucracy.

"He's actually residing in a house of cards that could easily
be knocked down. He's riding a bureaucracy that can someday
swallow him up."

He speculated Habibie might consider he had built a successful
power base by embracing the military and business world, the same
pillars exploited by former president Soeharto.

"As a politician, he might have started to understand the
national political map, and started to think that he has won
greater political support," Riswandha said. "He has probably also
started to become addicted to being president."

However, Habibie remains to many people a mere extension of
Soeharto. "He is still the political student of Soeharto, who
employs political maneuvers that Soeharto used, for instance, by
creating the support of the military."

He speculated that Habibie drew on his mentor's autocratic
strategies to pressure the education minister into banning
students from demonstrating under the pretext that protests would
disrupt their learning process.

Riswandha believed Amien Rais, the chairman of the National
Mandate Party (PAN), held the most chance to become the next
president, especially if his party forms a coalition with the
popular Megawati Soekarnoputri's faction of the splintered
Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).

Public figure Abdurrahman Wahid and Yogyakarta monarch Sultan
Hamengkubuwono X, on the other hand, would have great chances if
the situation degenerated into chaos where people lost values to
hold onto, Riswandha said.

Habibie said in Hanoi on Tuesday he would accept the
presidency for a second term if the People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR) wanted to appoint him. It would be arrogant to
refuse, he reasoned.

"I don't want to say that I want to be president. I had not
even planned to become president," Habibie told journalists. "But
if they (MPR) say my dear friend you have done a good job then
you continue... If they want me to do it and I'm still in good
health then I think it is very difficult for me, it sounds
arrogant if I say no."

Strategies

Critics say Habibie should renounce any intention to be
reelected to dispel deep suspicions which have dogged his
presidency. They say many of his policies are strategies to
ensure he will remain in office.

Then vice president Habibie was thrust into the job last May
when Soeharto stepped down amid widespread violence in Jakarta
that killed almost 1,200 people.

After taking power, Habibie promised a new president would be
nominated by the end of next year at the latest. He also said on
Tuesday he would retire if it was the people's wish and he would
support a new president.

Separately in Jakarta, political observer Hasnan Habib said
the public should be grateful and accepting if the MPR reelected
Habibie.

However, Minister/State Secretary Akbar Tandjung, who is also
chairman of the dominant Golkar political grouping, would stand a
better chance given his political experience if he wished to run,
Hasnan was quoted by Antara as saying.

Hasnan reiterated the need for Habibie to work and build his
legitimacy because people still believed the Cabinet was "guided"
by Soeharto.

"The Cabinet does try to fight corruption and nepotism, but
it's effort so far have not gone smoothly because there's no
seriousness."

He suggested only new faces should appear in the next Cabinet.
(44/swe)