Habibie reelection odds get short shrift

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political analyst Riswandha Imawan believes President B.J. Habibie's poor legitimacy, inability to control other political forces and a misguided sense of optimism almost rule him out of keeping the reins of power for a second term.

"He's too optimistic," said the lecturer of Gadjah Mada University on Saturday. "He has forgotten that he could not rely on the political maneuvers of (his aides) Akbar Tandjung, Adi Sasono and others in the bureaucracy.

"He's actually residing in a house of cards that could easily be knocked down. He's riding a bureaucracy that can someday swallow him up."

He speculated Habibie might consider he had built a successful power base by embracing the military and business world, the same pillars exploited by former president Soeharto.

"As a politician, he might have started to understand the national political map, and started to think that he has won greater political support," Riswandha said. "He has probably also started to become addicted to being president."

However, Habibie remains to many people a mere extension of Soeharto. "He is still the political student of Soeharto, who employs political maneuvers that Soeharto used, for instance, by creating the support of the military."

He speculated that Habibie drew on his mentor's autocratic strategies to pressure the education minister into banning students from demonstrating under the pretext that protests would disrupt their learning process.

Riswandha believed Amien Rais, the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), held the most chance to become the next president, especially if his party forms a coalition with the popular Megawati Soekarnoputri's faction of the splintered Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).

Public figure Abdurrahman Wahid and Yogyakarta monarch Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, on the other hand, would have great chances if the situation degenerated into chaos where people lost values to hold onto, Riswandha said.

Habibie said in Hanoi on Tuesday he would accept the presidency for a second term if the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) wanted to appoint him. It would be arrogant to refuse, he reasoned.

"I don't want to say that I want to be president. I had not even planned to become president," Habibie told journalists. "But if they (MPR) say my dear friend you have done a good job then you continue... If they want me to do it and I'm still in good health then I think it is very difficult for me, it sounds arrogant if I say no."

Strategies

Critics say Habibie should renounce any intention to be reelected to dispel deep suspicions which have dogged his presidency. They say many of his policies are strategies to ensure he will remain in office.

Then vice president Habibie was thrust into the job last May when Soeharto stepped down amid widespread violence in Jakarta that killed almost 1,200 people.

After taking power, Habibie promised a new president would be nominated by the end of next year at the latest. He also said on Tuesday he would retire if it was the people's wish and he would support a new president.

Separately in Jakarta, political observer Hasnan Habib said the public should be grateful and accepting if the MPR reelected Habibie.

However, Minister/State Secretary Akbar Tandjung, who is also chairman of the dominant Golkar political grouping, would stand a better chance given his political experience if he wished to run, Hasnan was quoted by Antara as saying.

Hasnan reiterated the need for Habibie to work and build his legitimacy because people still believed the Cabinet was "guided" by Soeharto.

"The Cabinet does try to fight corruption and nepotism, but it's effort so far have not gone smoothly because there's no seriousness."

He suggested only new faces should appear in the next Cabinet. (44/swe)