Habibie may change, says Gus Dur

JAKARTA (JP): Abdurrahman Wahid came up on Wednesday with yet another surprising move when he praised President B.J. Habibie -- whom he had often criticized for his links to Golkar and the past regime -- as amenable to change and as less conservative than many people thought.

The chairman of the 30-million strong Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Muslim organization told the public not to see people and situations as "black and white".

"It's not absolutely true that Pak Habibie is pro-status quo," he said at his office on Jl. Kramat Raya, Central Jakarta. "He may even meet all the requirements to be called a reformist."

Abdurrahman, better known as Gus Dur, did not explain the requirements, but observers have defined reformists as those who are prepared to uproot corruption, and even cases of corruption allegedly committed by Habibie's predecessor and mentor Soeharto. Students and scholars alike have also defined reform activists as those who support the elimination of the military's political role and amendments to the 1945 Constitution.

Commenting on National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Amien Rais' support for him as an alternative presidential candidate, Abdurrahman said he would be "passive".

He said the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) would decide the matter. The Assembly will meet in November to elect a president and vice president and establish the State Policy Guidelines.

Meanwhile, political scientist Daniel Lev said in New York the indirect presidential election would benefit incumbent Habibie in his presidential bid.

"In such a system, an incumbent could gain enough support to stay in power. Hence, it's likely that Habibie is elected," Lev told Antara on Tuesday.

Lev, a professor at Washington University, said the projected allocation of seats at the MPR supported his argument. He said Habibie would benefit from the votes of 200 appointees who represent provinces and interest groups, and also from a coalition of Muslim-based parties at the MPR.

"The Islamic faction will certainly support Habibie. Thanks to his link to ICMI (the Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals)," Lev said.

He dismissed speculations that the Islamic faction, proposed by United Development Party (PPP) chairman Hamzah Haz, would take shape as a result of a shared interest to foil Megawati Soekarnoputri's path to power. Megawati leads the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

He asserted the faction could emerge because of mounting demands for Muslims to play a major role in national politics and the administration.

"For 150 years, the predominantly Muslim country saw a minor role played by Muslims," Lev said.

However, Lev did not dismiss Megawati's chances, saying that she could receive pivotal support from the military.

He said Megawati could further gain the upper hand if her PDI Perjuangan coalesced with PAN and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

But he emphasized that Indonesian politics held many surprises. He did not rule out the possibility that alternative candidates, specifically PAN chairman Amien Rais and Indonesian Military (TNI) chief Gen. Wiranto, could emerge as likely winners in the race for the presidency.

Lev said the U.S. government would not favor one particular presidential candidate. He said the U.S. would accept any candidate provided that he or she could lead Indonesia to become a stable and democratic country, which was open to American products and able to repay its foreign debts.

PPP support

Separately, PPP deputy chairman A.M. Saefuddin said on Wednesday his party would back Habibie's bid for the presidency.

"Our support for Habibie is final, although we have yet to formally announce it. The announcement will be made at the right moment," Saefuddin said a meting with the rector of Padjadjaran University in Bandung.

Saefuddin, who is also state minister of food and horticulture, said Habibie remained the strongest candidate, despite Golkar's loss in the June 7 elections. Golkar has named Habibie its sole presidential candidate, although party chairman Akbar Tandjung has suggested this decision may be reviewed.

Political observer Cornelius Lay of Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said a recent idea to establish an alternative MPR faction to support a candidate other than Habibie or Megawati, was not extraordinary, but should not hamper the democratic process in the Assembly.

"If this notion is really serious, the establishment of the alternative faction is an expression of disappointment or impatience toward Megawati's silence all this time," he said.

Political observer Kautsar Bailusy from Hasanuddin University in Ujungpandang said on Wednesday the proposed establishment of an alternative faction at the MPR would lead to Amien's presidential nomination.

"I can see that the alternative MPR faction will nominate Amien Rais if both Habibie and Megawati insist on being elected president," he told The Jakarta Post.

"Promoting Gus Dur as its candidate is part of (Amien's) strategy to learn how people will respond to the alternative faction."

In a related development, thousands of PDI Perjuangan supporters, grouped under the Forum for People's Struggle, staged a street rally in Bogor, West Java, on Wednesday, blasting incumbent Habibie's nomination and reiterating support for Megawati's nomination.

In a written statement, copies of which were distributed to rally participants and passersby, the group pledged to mobilize millions of people to the House of Representatives and to the People's Consultative Assembly to air their aspirations.

The group also said they would call on supporters to rally on July 27 in Jl. Diponegoro in Central Jakarta at the site where a bloody takeover of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) headquarters by the military and Megawati's rival took place on that day in 1996.

In the riot that ensued, five people were killed. (23/24/27/43/45/amd/imn)