Gus Dur's charisma put to the test again

Gus Dur's charisma put to the test again

Muhammad Nafik and Blontank Poer, The Jakarta Post/Surakarta

Former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid looks set to retain
power as chief patron of the National Awakening Party (PKB) he
founded six years ago after the 1988 downfall of strongman
Soeharto.

Yet, his influence and charisma will be put to the test again
during PKB's three-day congress in Semarang, Central Java, due to
start on Saturday, after he suffered an ignominious defeat in
last December's conference of the 40 million-strong Nahdlatul
Ulama (NU).

The prominent moderate leader stumbled in the NU leadership
race when the country's largest Muslim organization he had
chaired for 15 years until his accession to the presidency in
1999, reelected his bitter opponent Hasyim Muzadi as leader for a
second five-year term on Dec. 2, last year.

Hasyim defeated rival candidate Masdar Farid Mas'udi, who Gus
Dur had backed in the race to head the executive tanfidziyah
body. Hasyim's win followed Gus Dur's defeat at the hands of the
low-profile but charismatic cleric Sahal Mahfudz to head the
organization's powerful syuria law-making body.

Sahal's triumph meant that Gus Dur failed to block the
reelection bid of Hasyim who had dared to resist Gus Dur openly
by standing as running mate of incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri
in last year's presidential elections.

Gus Dur's political life has been a career of highs and rocky
lows.

Years ahead of Soeharto's fall, Gus Dur emerged as a key
figure on the country's political stage. Aside from advocating
moderation, religious tolerance and democracy, he was one of a
few leaders brave enough to call for a "national leadership
succession".

Later after the stumbling Habibie regime crumbled Gus Dur
reached his political peak, elected as president in October 1999.

After an erratic presidency his power base suffered the first
critical blow when the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the
country's highest legislature then dominated by Megawati's
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar
Party, moved to impeach him as president for alleged
incompetence.

The second blow came when the nearly blind figure was barred
by the General Elections Commission (KPU) from contesting the
presidential race because of his disabilities.

"He's finished," one cleric once said, commenting after Gus
Dur lost in the December NU leadership congress in Surakarta,
Central Java. Other delegates to the congress expressed empathy
to him. "What's pity, Gus Dur", they said.

The national congress of the NU-based PKB could represent a
further stumble if Gus Dur fails to ensure his supporters win the
race, and many observers see this congress as a litmus test of
his continuing influence in the party.

The meeting will also see a showdown between Gus Dur's two
rival nephews -- Gus Dur detractor Saifullah Yusuf and his
supporter Muhaimin Iskandar. Other important contenders are
former defense minister Mahfud MD and senior PKB politician Ali
Masykur Moesa, both solidly in the Gus Dur camp.

Both Saifullah and Muhaimin have received support from senior
NU ulemas, including those who have backed Gus Dur's failed bid
to secure the syuria top post.

Saifullah was suspended as the PKB secretary-general after
defying Gus Dur by joining the Cabinet of Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono, whose presidential bid was not supported by the party.

Party insiders fear the rivalry between the opposing Saifullah
and Muhaimin factions could undermine the integrity of the PKB as
Gus Dur is determined to stymie Saifullah's leadership
aspirations.

Saifullah, the current state minister for the development of
disadvantaged regions and also the chairman of Ansor -- the NU's
youth wing -- has won backing from a group of influential clerics
led by Abdullah Faqih from the Langitan Islamic boarding school
in Tuban, East Java.

This significant support, thanks to his intensive lobbying of
senior ulemas, was apparently linked to Saifullah's plan to sue
the PKB central board for suspending him.

"The majority of PKB executives at the regency and provincial
branches across Java have vowed support for Saifullah," one of
his close friends, Adie Massardi, who resigned on Thursday as a
spokesman for Gus Dur, told The Jakarta Post.

Saifullah's influence within the party should not be
underestimated. In an extraordinary PKB congress in January 2002,
he looked certain to win the leadership, with a majority backing
from regional branches and senior clerics. However, Gus Dur's
risky end-game strategy of threatening to quit if his rebellious
nephew was elected paid off, and the meeting chose Gus Dur's
close aide Alwi Shihab, after senior clerics backed down from
confrontation with their chief patron.

However, friends are not friends forever, and last October,
Alwi was suspended from his post after joining Susilo's Cabinet
along with Saifullah.

During the last five years, Saifullah has courted controversy,
establishing close ties with Megawati Soekarnoputri and her
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Now, the Ansor leader is rumored to have tacit support from
Vice President Jusuf Kalla to challenge Gus Dur's candidates in
the congress. Saifullah is also accused of attempting to vote buy
his way to the top.

Observers say any Saifullah win would also represent a
consolidation of power of the Susilo-Kalla government as an
important political rival -- Gus Dur -- would be reduced in
strength.

"Many negative rumors have been aimed at me. But I understand
(their motivation) and am already immune to such speculation,"
Saifullah told the Post.

Muhaimin, a House of Representatives Deputy Speaker, meanwhile
has said that instead of focusing his efforts on lobbying hard to
become the new PKB chief, he would prefer to sell visible,
workable policies for the party and the nation's future.

Many PKB leaders were too busy discussing leadership and had
neglected the party's mission as a public advocator, Muhaimin
said.

"The recent fuel price hikes, the welfare of workers and their
plight overseas are ignored, although this should be the serious
concern of all party executives."

Two other candidates, Mahfud and Ali Masykur, could emerge as
dark horses to defeat both Saifullah and Muhaimin due to their
close ties with Gus Dur.

Though a relative newcomer within the PKB, like Muhaimin,
Mahfud is a close confidante of Gus Dur, while Ali Masykur is an
influential young politician with a bright future.

Both Mahfud and Ali Masykur are equally popular and acceptable
among the PKB grassroot supporters.

Should the rivalry between Saifullah and Muhaimin get too hot
and the former be blocked by the PKB policy banning party
executives from serving on government posts, either Mahfud or Ali
Masykur could win the race due as Saifullah's supporters switch
camps.