Gus Dur predicts presidential election will be influenced

JAKARTA (JP): Moslem scholar Abdurrahman Wahid predicts a "coalition" of interest groups within the Armed Forces (ABRI) and "political Moslems" will influence the outcome of the 1998 presidential election.

Addressing a discussion on Indonesian politics here Tuesday, the chairman of the 30 million-strong Nahdlatul Ulama Moslem organization spoke of another possibility: an alliance between "professional Armed Forces officials" and "cultural Moslems" which would place the presidential election within the framework of the 1945 Constitution.

In a diatribe in which he lashed out at many parties, Abdurrahman polarized Moslems as those who seek to obtain political dominance ("political Moslems") and those who seek to stay within the existing political framework and struggle for Islamic causes through non-political means ("cultural Moslems"). He also polarized ABRI as comprising those driven by personal ambitions, and professionals.

"If the ambitious military officers join forces with Moslems seeking to turn Islam into a political flag, then I would say that our political future will be very tense," said Abdurrahman, also known as Gus Dur.

The discussion was held by Forum Dialog Bhineka Tunggal Ika established by, among others, Yorris Raweyai, chairman of the Golkar-affiliate Pemuda Pancasila youth group. It was attended by representatives of various well-connected organizations.

In his speech, Abdurrahman said the Association of Indonesian Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI) fit his category of "political Moslems".

The association's chairman, State Minister for Research and Technology B.J Habibie, is a close confidant of President Soeharto and has been mentioned as a possible candidate for vice presidency.

"The combination of ambitious officers and which ever Islamic group wants to dominate the existing political arena could create a jolting change in the country's leadership," said Abdurrahman.

Alternative

Abdurrahman offered an alternative to the first coalition. "If professional officers ally themselves with the (non-politicking) cultural Moslems, and overturn the first coalition, then the situation in the future would be more relaxed," he said.

The second alliance would leave the issue of national leadership to the People's Consultative Assembly and it would not matter to them whether there was a presidential succession. "As long as everything goes in accordance with the constitution, the situation will be cool," he said.

The 1,000-strong People's Consultative Assembly, which includes 500 members of the House of Representatives, will convene next year to prepare the Broad Guidelines of State Policy and elect a new president.

Abdurrahman vowed Nahdlatul Ulama would do its utmost to defend the 1945 Constitution, especially from groups who sought to deviate from it. "We don't have any other choice," he said.

Abdurrahman also criticized fellow Moslem scholar, Amien Rais, who said Moslems were under-represented in Indonesian political institutions. Amien is chairman of the 28-million-strong Muhammadiyah as well as a leading member of ICMI.

"If someone says Islam is not represented in the political institutions, it slanders the Islamic community. Are they saying that Soeharto and Vice President Try Sutrisno are not Moslems?" he said.

Abdurrahman also spoke about the so-called Green Dragon Operation and Red Dragon Operation launched by a certain powerful circle to discredit him and ousted Indonesian Democratic Party leader Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Some people have been outraged at what they believe were Abdurrahman's insinuations that ICMI was behind the operation. (35)