Gulf States Test China's Influence over Iran: How Powerful is Xi Jinping?

Gulf Arab nations have begun relying on China to utilise its economic leverage over Iran amidst the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. This move is driven by the hope that Beijing can assist in easing tensions that threaten regional stability. Expectations are focused on China’s ability to encourage Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and mitigate threats to shipping lanes in the Red Sea. This effort serves as a test of the extent of Beijing’s diplomatic influence over Iran amidst the evolving conflict.

Concerns among Gulf states have escalated after conflicts triggered by US and Israeli actions against Iran on 28 February disrupted energy exports and heightened regional security risks. “China continues to maintain close communication with all parties and consistently strives to stop fighting and promote peace,” stated the Chinese Foreign Ministry, as reported by Reuters. According to three regional sources, Gulf nations have requested Beijing’s intervention, perceiving that recent warfare has demonstrated the limitations of US influence in resolving conflicts. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reportedly engaged in a series of communications with various parties, while special envoy Zhai Jun has visited several Gulf capitals and Iran to promote a ceasefire.

China’s position as a primary purchaser of oil from the Gulf region and its status as Iran’s largest trading partner places Beijing in a strategic yet sensitive position. “There is a high level of mutual respect between the Gulf states and China, as well as their status as major trading partners, so any emerging issues are discussed in a very closed and careful manner,” noted one source from the Gulf region. Nevertheless, Iran maintains its intention to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states hope China can persuade Tehran to return to the negotiating table.

“China often moves slowly and cautiously,” said one source, adding that prolonged warfare could potentially provide a strategic advantage to Beijing by increasing pressure on the US. While economic ties between China and the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have expanded since the 2022 China-GCC Summit, Beijing is seen as remaining cautious about openly opposing Iranian threats to international shipping lanes. “China is striving to be more involved and more helpful. However, it appears China’s influence is not as large as we thought; whether this is due to a lack of will or capacity remains a subject of debate,” another Gulf source remarked.

Henry Tugendhat, a China expert at the Washington Institute, suggests that Beijing’s primary priority is maintaining good relations with all Middle Eastern nations rather than risking diplomatic damage by taking sides. He noted that as the US is directly involved in the conflict, China’s strategic calculations now encompass its global competition with Washington. Simultaneously, China continues to utilise its economic ties to strengthen its diplomatic role in the Middle East. Following its successful mediation of the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement in 2023, Beijing is now encouraging Pakistan to act as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. China is also reportedly communicating directly with the Houthi group in Yemen to ensure that tankers related to its interests can safely traverse the Red Sea. Analysts suggest China’s response reflects a long-term strategy to avoid military involvement outside East Asia, with Beijing asserting it is not prepared to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, preferring instead to promote solutions through diplomacy, dialogue, and the maintenance of international maritime security.