Gulf States Flooded with Working-Age Population: Blessing or Curse?

Gulf states dominate the list of countries with the highest proportion of working-age population in the world. This situation is inseparable from the heavy flow of migrant workers entering to fill labour needs across various sectors. The phenomenon makes the demographic structure of Gulf countries different from many other nations, with a very large share of productive-age residents. A large working-age population can be an important asset for a country because it provides substantial labour potential, but that figure does not mean everyone is already employed or part of the labour force. Based on data, Qatar is at the top, with 83.3% of its population in the working-age group. The United Arab Emirates follows with 82%, then Kuwait at 78.4% and Bahrain at 77.4%. Thus, four Gulf states occupy the top four positions on the list. The high proportion of working-age residents in these countries is closely linked to the economic characteristics of the Gulf region. Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have for decades built their energy, construction, infrastructure, tourism and services sectors by relying on foreign labour, according to the International Labour Organization. Migrant workers coming to these countries are generally of productive age. Their presence then makes the working-age group take a very large share compared with children and the elderly. This phenomenon is most visible in Qatar. Of its entire population, 83.3% are in the working-age group, making it the country with the highest proportion on the list. The UAE also records a nearly identical figure of 82%. This means the high figure cannot simply be read as a sign that the local Qatari or Emirati population has very high productivity. The population structure of both countries is also the result of economic demand for foreign labour. The situation is also interesting when compared with the concept of a demographic dividend. In many developing countries, a demographic dividend occurs when the number of productive-age residents rises because of a relatively young population structure. Governments then try to exploit that condition to drive economic growth. Gulf states face a somewhat different phenomenon. Their very large working-age proportion is largely driven by labour migration. When development needs and economic activity increase, the number of foreign workers also grows. Conversely, changes in economic conditions can affect the number of workers coming to and living in the country. In other words, demography in Gulf states is determined not only by birth and death rates but also by migration flows. Outside the Gulf states, the Maldives is in fifth place with 75.6%, followed by Singapore at 75.2%. Saudi Arabia is seventh with 73.1%. Brunei, Oman and several Southeast Asian countries also make the list. Brunei records 72.5%, Oman 72.1%, Malaysia 70.3% and Thailand 70.2%. South Korea is in 12th place with 70.7%. These differences show that a high proportion of working-age residents can stem from different demographic characteristics. In Gulf states, migration is a very important factor. In a country like South Korea, by contrast, the high working-age proportion must be read in the context of a population facing low birth rates and an ageing process. For Gulf states, the large working-age population provides major advantages for the economy. Labour is available to support construction projects, the energy industry, services and tourism. But the structure also creates dependence on foreign workers. When the economy needs more labour, the country can increase recruitment from abroad. When projects and investment slow, however, demand for migrant workers can also change. This makes the demographic structure of Gulf states more dynamic than that of countries where most of the working-age population comes from the domestic population. That is a challenge for Gulf states in stabilising migrant workers. The data ultimately show that a country’s population structure cannot be separated from its economic model. Qatar and the UAE have very high working-age proportions not only because of natural demographic factors but also because of economic needs that attract millions of migrant workers. Meanwhile, countries with ageing populations face the opposite problem: how to maintain the labour supply when the number of productive-age residents begins to shrink. Therefore, Qatar’s 83.3% figure is not merely a demographic statistic. It also illustrates how a country builds its economy by relying on labour flows from abroad.