Govt to import 1m tons of rice

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia will have to import up to one million tons of rice in anticipation of a late harvest next year, a minister has predicted.

Minister of Agriculture Syarifuddin Baharsyah said Wednesday the long dry season could delay seedling and crop periods by one- and-a-half months.

"The delayed harvest will cause a shortage of public rice stocks. We are worried that the existing stocks will be finished by late February or early March next year," the minister said after a cabinet meeting Wednesday.

Syarifuddin said that one million tons of rice would be sufficient to cover the possible shortage.

He said the next harvest period would likely fall in March 1988, and it was therefore wise that government import rice until the harvest period.

"One million tons of rice is an enormous figure but the National Logistics Agency (Bulog) will decide the exact figure."

He said the last time Indonesia imported a large amount of rice was in 1994 after a long dry season.

"This time, we have tried to speed up the planting period, but there are still possible delays," he said, reiterating that Indonesia had not imported rice this year.

Minister of Food Ibrahim Hasan said that Indonesia would need to import between one and 1.5 million tons of rice to meet the ideal domestic rice stock level of between 2.5 million and 2.8 million tons of rice.

"There is currently 1.5 million tons of rice. So calculate yourself how much we need to import," Ibrahim said during a cabinet meeting.

Bulog's head, Beddu Amang, said last August the government would not import rice despite this year's long dry season.

He said the agency's current rice stocks of about three million tons was sufficient to offset a possible drop in rice production.

"The existing rice stocks will be enough to face the dry season until next March or April," Beddu said.

Oil revenue

Minister of Mines and Energy I.B. Sudjana said Wednesday the target revenue from oil for the 1998/1999 state budget should be ideally based on an indicative crude oil price of about US$17 per barrel.

Speaking to journalists before the cabinet meeting Wednesday, Sudjana said US$17 per barrel was an ideal price to indicate target receipts from oil exports in the next state budget.

"I think about US$17 per barrel is a realistic price."

He said he was optimistic that oil prices would continue to rise next year, although there were possibilities that they could also drop.

The government's revenue from oil and gas is projected to increase to Rp 14.87 trillion in the 1997/1998 fiscal year, an increase of 5 percent from Rp 14.12 trillion last fiscal year. In the current fiscal year, which will end in March, the calculation of the revenue from oil is based on the crude price of $16.50 per barrel.

Experts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) had expected that the use of oil in developed countries would increase next year, he said.

"If they (the experts) anticipated a drop in prices, the quota would not be increased," he said.

OPEC ministers agreed here last month in its annual meeting to raise its output ceiling by about 10 percent to 27.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first half of next year.

Indonesia raised its output quota to 1.45 million bpd from 1.33 million bpd.

OPEC, which accounts for 40 percent of the world's output, groups Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria.

Sudjana said he expected the country to produce 27.5 million barrels of oil next year.

He said he was optimistic that the revenue from the oil and gas sector would still contribute largely to the state budget.

Sudjana also said Wednesday the government would keep its subsidy on oil fuel in next year's state budget.

"In the current economic situation, we have to maintain the subsidy on oil fuel," he said.

Also at Wednesday's plenary meeting, Minister of Information R. Hartono said the government would help with the negotiations over the price of newsprint.

"We will help with discussions to negotiate the price," he said.

"The Ministry of Information believes the price should remain the same, but the decision will depend on (Minister of Industry and Trade) Tunky Ariwibowo," he said.

The Association of Indonesian Newspaper Publishers has been negotiating with newsprint producers to reduce the price, in response to mounting complaints by the country's publishing houses about the sharp rise in the price of newsprint.

Several small publications have closed down in the past month due to the price hike. (icn/das/prb)