Government Predicts Idulfitri 2026 Homecoming Activity to Boost National Economic Circulation
The Idulfitri homecoming momentum represents a strategic economic phenomenon that consistently drives an increase in national economic activity. Its mass, scheduled nature, and multiplier effect make homecoming a driver of various real sectors simultaneously.
Based on historical data, household consumption increases by 15%-20% compared to normal months, in line with high societal mobility and increased velocity of money. The high Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) of Indonesian society during this period further strengthens consumption drive, including income increases for local UMKM actors by 50%-70%.
A 2023 Central Statistics Agency (BPS) study shows that homecoming activity contributes around 1.5% to annual national economic growth (yoy). This contribution occurs through the redistribution of money flows from economic centres to various regions, expanding economic impact and increasing more even money circulation.
Spokesperson for the Coordinating Ministry of the Economy, Haryo Limanseto, explained: “Every expenditure by homecomers creates a multiplier effect that provides layered impacts for economic actors, including UMKM, traders, and the transportation services sector. This increased activity also contributes to income rises in the trade and services sectors. With such great potential, policy synergy and strengthening the role of UMKM become key to optimising the Lebaran homecoming momentum to drive inclusive and sustainable economic growth.”
For Idulfitri 2026, economic activity projections are estimated to increase compared to the previous year. The 2025 Idulfitri evaluation recorded societal movement reaching 154.62 million people. Movement and societal spending in 2026 are expected to be higher to support the annual economic growth target of 5.5%-5.6% (yoy).
This optimism is supported by various stimulus policies, including fiscal allocations of more than Rp12.8 trillion, distribution of social assistance worth Rp11.92 trillion to 5.04 million Beneficiary Families (KPM), and transport fare discounts worth Rp911.16 billion. With household consumption contributing around 53%-54% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), these various stimuli are projected to have a positive impact on national economic performance.
The government routinely implements policies to encourage economic activity through the Idulfitri homecoming momentum, among others:
Haryo added: “Even though there are global pressures due to the Iran-Israel-US conflict, our economic fundamentals remain strong. In addition, the Government is committed to not raising fuel prices at this time, so public purchasing power remains maintained. Therefore, for this year’s Idulfitri, we predict optimism that the economy can be better than the previous year.”