Government Predicts Eid al-Fitr on 21 March 2026; When According to Muhammadiyah and NU?
As Ramadan draws to a close, Muslims across Indonesia eagerly await confirmation of Eid al-Fitr 1447 AH (Lebaran 2026). This date is keenly anticipated as the determination of the first day of Shawwal marks the end of fasting and preparations for the celebration.
The determination of Shawwal’s commencement in Indonesia attracts annual attention due to differing calculation methodologies for determining the start of months in the Islamic calendar. These methodological differences frequently result in varying dates for Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
Beyond the government, the setting of Lebaran 2026 is also undertaken by major Indonesian Islamic organisations, namely Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). However, both organisations employ their own distinct methodologies for determining the beginning of Islamic months.
Before examining when Muhammadiyah and NU have established Lebaran 2026, it is important to review the Islamic calendar, which guides these determinations. This matters significantly as Indonesia observes different dates for the commencement of Ramadan 2026.
Muhammadiyah established the start of Ramadan 1447 AH (2026 CE) as 18 February 2026. This decision was communicated by the Muhammadiyah Central Leadership (PP) on the basis of Decree Number 2/MLM/I0.E/2025 issued by the Council of Islamic Jurisprudence (Majlis Tarjih) and Renewal, following mathematical astronomical calculations based on the Single Global Islamic Calendar (KHGT).
By contrast, the government, through the Ministry of Religious Affairs (Kemenag) of the Republic of Indonesia and Nahdlatul Ulama, has made a different determination. The government, through the official Isbat Session for Ramadan Commencement, formally established the start of Ramadan 1447 AH (2026 CE) as one day later, on 19 February 2026. Similarly, the Nahdlatul Ulama Central Board (PNBU) also set the fasting commencement on 19 February 2026.
When does Lebaran 2026 arrive? Below are the predictions and determinations from the government, Muhammadiyah, and NU.
Government Prediction for Lebaran 2026
The government has not yet formally established the date of Lebaran 2026. The confirmation regarding Eid al-Fitr will be decided through an Isbat session scheduled for Thursday, 19 March 2026.
Although official confirmation awaits this session, the anticipated date can be gleaned from the Indonesian Islamic Calendar published by the Directorate General of Islamic Community Guidance (Bimas) at the Ministry of Religious Affairs. In this calendar, 1 Shawwal 1447 AH is estimated to fall on Saturday, 21 March 2026.
Lebaran 2026 According to Muhammadiyah
In contrast to the government, Muhammadiyah employs the method of hisab hakiki wujudul hilal (mathematical astronomical calculation of hilal existence) in determining the start of Islamic months. This method relies on mathematical astronomical computation without awaiting direct hilal observation.
Because this calculation method is used, major Islamic dates according to Muhammadiyah can typically be known well in advance. Through these calculations, the commencement of Islamic months can be predicted earlier without requiring the rukyat (moon sighting) process.
Consequently, Muhammadiyah has already established the schedule for Eid al-Fitr 1447 AH/2026 through Decree of the Muhammadiyah Central Leadership Number 2/MLM/I.0/E/2025 regarding the determination of calculations for Ramadan, Shawwal, and Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AH. This decree states that 1 Shawwal 1447 AH falls on Friday, 20 March 2026.
This means that for those beginning the fast on 1 Ramadan 1447 AH, which falls on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, Eid al-Fitr 1447 AH (Lebaran 2026) will arrive on Friday, 20 March 2026.
Lebaran 2026 Prediction According to NU
On the other hand, Nahdlatul Ulama has not yet formally established the date for Lebaran 2026 celebrations. This is because NU’s determination of Shawwal’s commencement is typically conducted towards the end of Ramadan following moon sighting (rukyatul hilal) observations.
Nahdlatul Ulama employs the method of rukyatul hilal bil fi’li, directly observing the hilal from various monitoring points across Indonesia. According to the Ministry of Religious Affairs, because NU uses the Rukyat method, its decisions typically align with the results of the government’s Isbat session.
Should reference be made to the NU Almanac, then 1 Shawwal 1447 AH corresponds with Saturday, 21 March 2026. This indicates that NU predicts Ramadan 2026 will run for a complete 30 days, precisely matching the government’s prediction.
Ramadan 1447 AH/2026 CE Calendar in Two Versions
To help readers calculate the days of Ramadan 1447 AH/2026 CE, below are two calendars in their respective versions, based on Muhammadiyah’s KHGT and the Ministry of Religious Affairs Islamic Calendar–NU Almanac:
Ramadan 1447 AH Calendar According to Muhammadiyah
Wednesday, 18 February 2026: Fasting day 1 (1 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Thursday, 19 February 2026: Fasting day 2 (2 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Friday, 20 February 2026: Fasting day 3 (3 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Saturday, 21 February 2026: Fasting day 4 (4 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Sunday, 22 February 2026: Fasting day 5 (5 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Monday, 23 February 2026: Fasting day 6 (6 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Tuesday, 24 February 2026: Fasting day 7 (7 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Wednesday, 25 February 2026: Fasting day 8 (8 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Thursday, 26 February 2026: Fasting day 9 (9 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Friday, 27 February 2026: Fasting day 10 (10 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Saturday, 28 February 2026: Fasting day 11 (11 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Sunday, 1 March 2026: Fasting day 12 (12 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Monday, 2 March 2026: Fasting day 13 (13 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Tuesday, 3 March 2026: Fasting day 14 (14 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Wednesday, 4 March 2026: Fasting day 15 (15 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Thursday, 5 March 2026: Fasting day 16 (16 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Friday, 6 March 2026: Fasting day 17 (17 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Saturday, 7 March 2026: Fasting day 18 (18 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Sunday, 8 March 2026: Fasting day 19 (19 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Monday, 9 March 2026: Fasting day 20 (20 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Tuesday, 10 March 2026: Fasting day 21 (21 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Wednesday, 11 March 2026: Fasting day 22 (22 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Thursday, 12 March 2026: Fasting day 23 (23 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Friday, 13 March 2026: Fasting day 24 (24 Ramadan 1447 AH)
Saturday, 14 March 2026: Fasting day 25 (25 Ramadan 1447 AH)