Government and DPR Agree on Preliminary 2027 State Budget, Targeting 6.5% Economic Growth

DPR Speaker Puan Maharani endorsed the results of the preliminary discussions on the 2027 State Budget Draft (RAPBN), which had previously been deliberated and agreed upon by the government and the DPR’s Budget Committee (Banggar). During the 23rd Plenary Session of the DPR for the 2025-2026 Session Year, Puan stated that these preliminary discussion results would serve as a guideline for drafting the 2027 RAPBN. ‘To be used as a guideline in the preparation of the 2027 State Budget Draft,’ Puan said at the DPR RI building in Senayan, Jakarta, on Thursday, 2 July 2026. The results of this preliminary discussion will be used as a reference by the government to set the initial proposed figures for the 2027 State Budget Bill, which will be determined on 16 August 2026. Subsequently, discussions will resume between the government and DPR Commission XII to produce the 2027 State Budget Law, slated for enactment at the end of October 2026. Several references for the 2027 RAPBN formulation agreed upon between the government and the DPR’s Budget Committee in this initial agreement cover several aspects, including macroeconomic assumptions, development targets, and the macro-fiscal posture, with details as follows: Macroeconomic Assumptions: 1) Economic Growth: 5.8–6.5 per cent; 2) Inflation Rate: 1.5–3.5 per cent; 3) Rupiah Exchange Rate: Rp 16,800–Rp 17,500 per US dollar; 4) 10-Year Government Bond Yield: 6.5–7.3 per cent; 5) Indonesian Crude Oil Price: US$70–US$95 per barrel; 6) Oil Lifting: 605–620 thousand barrels per day; 7) Gas Lifting: 951–990 thousand barrels of oil equivalent. 2027 Development Targets: 1) Poverty Rate: 6.0–6.5 per cent; 2) Extreme Poverty Rate: 0 per cent; 3) Gini Ratio: 0.362–0.367; 4) Open Unemployment Rate: 4.3–4.87 per cent; 5) Human Capital Index: 0.575; 6) Farmer Welfare Index: 0.8038; 7) Proportion of Formal Job Creation: 40.81 per cent; 8) GNI per capita: US$5,800–US$5,840; 9) Environmental Quality Index: 76.84. 2027 Macro-Fiscal Posture: 1) State Revenue: 12.01–12.40 per cent of GDP: a) Taxation: 10.16–10.50 per cent of GDP; b) Non-Tax State Revenue: 1.85–1.89 per cent of GDP; c) Grants: 0.002–0.003 per cent of GDP. 2) State Expenditure: 13.81–14.80 per cent of GDP: a) Central Government Expenditure: 11.26–12.01 per cent of GDP; b) Transfers to Regions: 2.55–2.79 per cent of GDP. 3) Primary Balance: Surplus of 0.45 per cent of GDP to deficit of 0.14 per cent of GDP. 4) Deficit: 1.8–2.4 per cent of GDP.