GOTO Shares at Risk from New Regulation: Time to Sell or Hold?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The movement of shares in PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) is observed to be tightly locked at the lower limit of Rp50 per share, with a massive dominant queue of sell orders from the start of the trading session up to tens of millions of lots.

This liquidity pressure in the secondary market is responding directly to the issuance of Presidential Regulation No. 27 of 2026, which specifically limits the maximum cut for online transportation applicators to 8%.

This situation is triggering high levels of caution among market participants who are weighing the impact of the regulation on the company’s future profitability.

Official Response and Management Position

In response to the highly volatile market dynamics, the company’s management, through an official information disclosure, stated that they only learned of the policy provisions through public media on 1 May 2026.

The company confirmed that, to date, management is still awaiting the official copy of the presidential regulation to conduct a comprehensive review and formulate an accurate operational business plan.

In addition, management reaffirmed the company’s commitment to always comply with all applicable regulations and provisions in Indonesia and to follow directives from the competent government authorities.

Regarding sentiments of intervention from state entities, management confirmed that BPI Danantara has indeed purchased a number of the company’s shares through the stock exchange transaction mechanism.

Although the presence of that entity is welcomed by the company as a reflection of confidence in the long-term business fundamentals, Danantara’s ownership portion is recorded at less than 1%.

The company also emphasised that, at this time, there are no major shareholders planning specific interventions, and the company has no plans for material corporate actions to be carried out in the next six months.

Financial Fundamentals and Risk Exposure

From a fundamental perspective, the company has essentially just recorded a positive performance turnaround with a net profit for the current period of Rp170.74 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

This profit achievement reverses from a net loss position that was still at Rp366.59 billion in the same period the previous year. This improvement in fundamental performance is strongly supported by consolidated net revenue growth to Rp5.34 trillion compared to Rp4.23 trillion last year.

However, the company’s current revenue structure has a very significant direct exposure to this latest online transportation regulation.

Referring to the interim financial report as of 31 March 2026, there are two main positions most sensitive to the commission sharing scheme: delivery service revenue recorded at Rp1.55 trillion and service rewards contributing Rp1.52 trillion.

In aggregate, these two mobility and logistics segments contribute around Rp3.08 trillion to the company’s total net revenue.

Quantitative Impact Simulation

If the applicator cut scheme is lowered from the historical lower limit assumption of 10% to a maximum of 8%, mathematically there is a 20% trimming of the applicator commission revenue portion.

A 20% reduction from the Rp3.08 trillion revenue base equates to a projected loss of receipts reaching Rp616.44 billion in the next quarter.

In the same period, the company’s operational expense structure remains large and rigid in the short term. This is evident from the cost of revenue at Rp2.08 trillion and selling and marketing expenses at Rp749.75 billion.

The potential loss of revenue amounting to Rp616.44 billion directly confronting the current net profit position at Rp170.74 billion quantitatively indicates a mathematical deficit difference of around Rp445.70 billion.

Without additional tariff adjustments to consumers or radical operational cost cuts, this projection places the company’s profitability at high risk of falling back into net loss territory in the upcoming quarter.

As a buffer against operational pressure, the company has a solid cash and cash equivalents balance of Rp22.73 trillion as of 31 March 2026, amid an accumulated loss pile-up on the balance sheet recorded at Rp215.07 trillion.

Shadow of FCA and Scheme Drop to Rp1 Level

In addition to these fundamental risks, the stagnation of the share price at the lower limit of Rp50 raises ongoing liquidity challenges related to the Special Monitoring Board mechanism.

Based on Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) regulations, shares locked at Rp50 with minimal daily transaction liquidity conditions have a strong chance of being included in the criteria for that special board.

If the company enters the Special Monitoring Board, the shares will be traded purely under the FCA mechanism. In this FCA regulatory scheme, the minimum share price limit is no longer held at Rp50 but is lifted to potentially reach the base level of Rp1 per share.

Daily price movements will be limited by the 10% Auto Rejection provision each day, both Upper Auto Rejection and Lower Auto Rejection.

Mathematically, if the sell order queue reaching tens of millions of lots is not soon absorbed by demand, the share price could shrink by a maximum of 10% day by day of trading.

This scheme has the potential to bring the price down consecutively from Rp50 to Rp45, then Rp40, and so on, up to the worst probability touching 1.