GOTO May Fall Below Rp 50, But Analysts See a Path to Recovery
GOTO May Fall Below Rp 50, But Analysts See a Path to Recovery
Jakarta. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (IDX: GOTO) shares could fall below Rp 50 if the Indonesia Stock Exchange scraps its minimum stock price, but analysts say the initial decline could help clear a technical overhang that has trapped the stock at its current level and pave the way for healthier price discovery.
Under the planned policy, the IDX would lower the minimum price for shares traded on the regular and cash markets from Rp 50 to Rp 1 per share. While the change could initially push GOTO below Rp 50, analysts said the greater price flexibility could help restore more efficient price discovery and liquidity.
MNC Sekuritas analyst Christian said removing the Rp 50 floor would create a new dynamic for GOTO, whose shares could move below the current level in the short term.
“If the minimum price rule is changed, GOTO shares are expected to fall below Rp 50. There is a positive side to this because sellers can meet buyers at a certain price,” Christian told reporters on Monday.
“That contrasts with the situation at Rp 50, where the sell queue is larger than the buy queue, leaving transactions unmatched,” he added.
Christian said the initial decline could bring short-term pain for investors. However, allowing the stock to move freely according to supply and demand could eventually improve liquidity and support healthier price discovery.
The pressure below Rp 50, therefore, would not necessarily signal a deterioration in GoTo’s fundamentals. Part of the initial weakness could instead reflect technical factors and portfolio adjustments by investors.
Technical Overhang
Christian said one of the main issues currently weighing on GOTO was not its underlying business performance but a technical overhang following its exclusion from several global indices.
GOTO’s removal from the FTSE and MSCI indices forced passive funds tracking those benchmarks to adjust their portfolios. But with the stock effectively stuck at Rp 50 and sell orders outweighing buy orders, those adjustments have been difficult to execute.
“At the current share price of Rp 50, there is indeed a technical overhang. Passive funds that have to exit GOTO because of its exclusion from the FTSE and MSCI indices are being held back,” Christian said.
“With the new rule, they would be able to rebalance, so hopefully this overhang problem would no longer exist,” he added.
Once that technical pressure subsides, GOTO’s share performance is likely to depend increasingly on its ability to sustain business growth and profitability.
The company’s fundamentals have shown significant improvement. GoTo posted a net profit of Rp 608 billion in the first half of 2026, reversing a net loss of Rp 580 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier. The result marked the company’s first profitable half-year.
Fintech Takes a Bigger Role
GoTo CEO Hans Patuwo previously said the company’s financial technology business had, for the first time, become more profitable than its On-Demand Services (ODS) segment.
The shift suggests that GoTo’s ecosystem is becoming less dependent on Gojek’s mobility and delivery businesses, with financial services through GoPay and related products taking on a bigger role.
“We are maintaining our full-year adjusted Group EBITDA guidance at Rp 3.2 trillion to Rp 3.4 trillion. We expect the contribution from the On-Demand Services business to decline, while the Fintech business will make a larger contribution,” Hans said.
The changing business mix has become increasingly important for GOTO’s investment outlook as investors look beyond transaction growth to the company’s ability to generate sustainable profits.
Still, regulatory uncertainty remains a key risk, particularly over the commission structure for online motorcycle taxi services.
The government introduced a new commission scheme for two-wheeled ride-hailing services on July 1, cutting the commission charged by applications to 8% from around 20% previously. Regulations governing food and goods delivery services, meanwhile, remain under discussion.
Deputy Communications and Digital Minister Nezar Patria previously said the government was seeking a balance between protecting drivers’ interests and ensuring the sustainability of app-based businesses.
For GOTO, regulatory certainty is critical because changes to the commission structure could affect the unit economics of its Gojek business.
Fundamentals to Regain Focus
Kiwoom Sekuritas analyst Abdul Aziz said the impact of the lower price floor on GOTO would likely be temporary, with investors eventually returning their attention to the company’s fundamentals.
“I see room for GOTO to further strengthen its fundamentals because GoTo is an integrated digital ecosystem. If Gojek’s performance is affected, there is still GoPay,” Abdul said.
He said regulatory flexibility would be an important factor in determining the sustainability of GOTO’s business model.
If regulations continue to give platforms room to set prices and maintain service quality, Abdul said GoTo could sustain its profitability momentum. He also expressed optimism that the company could achieve its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA target of Rp 3.2 trillion to Rp 3.4 trillion.
“When the sustainability of the ecosystem becomes a regulatory priority, that will become positive sentiment and a catalyst for GOTO shares,” he said.
Another development drawing market attention is Morgan Stanley’s recent purchase of GOTO shares at Rp 23 apiece
Based on a disclosure dated Aug. 26, Morgan Stanley held nearly 59.4 billion GOTO shares, equivalent to around 5.2% of the company’s outstanding shares.
The entry of the global institutional investor is another factor worth watching as GOTO navigates pressure from index exclusions and regulatory uncertainty. Still, the purchase alone may not be enough to determine the stock’s direction.
GOTO’s prospects will ultimately hinge on whether it can sustain profitability and achie