Good News on Trump Tariffs: Retail Giants Could Receive Hundreds of Billions of Dollars
Fresh funds could soon flow into the pockets of US retail giants starting this week. The US government, through the Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has officially opened the tariff refunds claims portal on Monday local time, following the Supreme Court’s (SC) decision in February that declared President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy invalid.
Previously, the SC annulled Trump’s reciprocal tariffs because they were deemed to lack a strong legal foundation. Trump had used the emergency law (IEEPA) to impose import tariffs, even though the regulation was actually intended for national emergency threat situations, not ordinary trade policies.
The SC then assessed that the use of that regulation exceeded the president’s authority. Since the tariffs are considered invalid from the outset, the money already paid by companies to the government becomes an invalid levy, and legally, the government has no right to retain that money.
Quoting CNBC International on Tuesday (21/4/2026), importers can submit declarations in the system for the tariffs they paid based on the annulled Trump reciprocal tariffs to receive “a single combined refund amount”. Refund claims must go through several validations referring to a number of documents.
Quoting Citi’s analysis data, US importers are estimated to claim more than US$160 billion (approximately Rp2,600 trillion). This makes it one of the largest potential refunds in modern trade history.
Several big names are expected to be the main recipients of the funds. Such as Walmart: US$10.2 billion, Target: US$2.2 billion, Nike: US$1 billion, Kohl’s: US$550 million, Gap: US$400 million, and Home Depot: around US$540 million.
Nevertheless, industry players and Wall Street analysts are somewhat sceptical about this. Many parties doubt the process will run smoothly.
“Importers are pessimistic that the government will make this easy. They instead expect the process to be made difficult,” said trade lawyer Matthew Seligman.
Concerns not only encompass bureaucratic obstacles and legal risks. But also the possibility of a sudden appeal from the government.
During the time the tariffs were in effect, many companies had passed on the cost increases to consumers through higher goods prices. According to a Harvard Business School study, those tariffs contributed about 0.76 percentage points to inflation (CPI) until October 2025.
If companies now receive refunds, questions will arise. Including whether consumers are entitled to compensation.
“The risk of being sued by customers, either directly or indirectly, is real,” said legal analyst Stefan Reisinger.
Threat of New Tariffs
The threat of new tariffs is also another issue. Although the SC has annulled the old tariffs, the US government has not fully given up.
Finance Minister Scott Bessent stated that the government is considering the use of another tariff policy, namely Section 301, which could revive similar tariffs starting in July. This keeps business players on alert.
“We are very concerned,” said Eugene Laney from the American Association of Exporters and Importers.