Golkar's fall, Megawati's rise

Golkar's fall, Megawati's rise

Until recently it was generally assumed that Indonesia's ruling Golkar Party would play a major role in the new parliament to emerge from the coming elections.

President Soeharto may have been deposed, but the powerful party machine built up under his rule, with its ample funding and nationwide network of branches, seemed bound to give Golkar a strong advantage in the campaign.

The past few weeks have shown a different picture. To start with, there was the party's unpopular decision to nominate the incumbent, Bacharuddin Habibie, as its candidate for the next presidency, perpetuating its image as a mere continuation of the Soeharto regime.

The public reaction has been shown by the derisory turnout at the party's campaign activities. Beyond that, the hostility directed against these rallies has seen Golkar leaders stoned, attacked and forced to flee.

This suggests that observers may have underestimated the popular hatred directed at those who misruled Indonesia for so long. With the major opposition forces coming together in a tactical alliance, it also raises the hitherto little-considered possibility that they could crush Golkar in the ballot.

One beneficiary of this, Megawati Soekarnoputri, daughter of the late president Sukarno, has not been generally considered as a serious contender for the presidency. Even as an opposition leader she has been found lacking. She refused to attend the protests that toppled Mr. Soeharto or to turn up at the memorial service for the slain students.

But as she travels the country, drawing the huge crowds Golkar no longer seems capable of attracting, her accession to power has suddenly come to look like a real possibility. While the presidential contest will not be held until November, the present campaign will be crucial to its outcome.

So, if Ms. Megawati's supporters do emerge in a dominant position after Monday's polls, her prospects will have to be taken more seriously, with all that may mean for the future of this huge and volatile nation.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong