Golkar's fall, Megawati's rise

Golkar's fall, Megawati's rise

Until recently it was generally assumed that Indonesia's
ruling Golkar Party would play a major role in the new parliament
to emerge from the coming elections.

President Soeharto may have been deposed, but the powerful
party machine built up under his rule, with its ample funding and
nationwide network of branches, seemed bound to give Golkar a
strong advantage in the campaign.

The past few weeks have shown a different picture. To start
with, there was the party's unpopular decision to nominate the
incumbent, Bacharuddin Habibie, as its candidate for the next
presidency, perpetuating its image as a mere continuation of the
Soeharto regime.

The public reaction has been shown by the derisory turnout at
the party's campaign activities. Beyond that, the hostility
directed against these rallies has seen Golkar leaders stoned,
attacked and forced to flee.

This suggests that observers may have underestimated the
popular hatred directed at those who misruled Indonesia for so
long. With the major opposition forces coming together in a
tactical alliance, it also raises the hitherto little-considered
possibility that they could crush Golkar in the ballot.

One beneficiary of this, Megawati Soekarnoputri, daughter of
the late president Sukarno, has not been generally considered as
a serious contender for the presidency. Even as an opposition
leader she has been found lacking. She refused to attend the
protests that toppled Mr. Soeharto or to turn up at the memorial
service for the slain students.

But as she travels the country, drawing the huge crowds Golkar
no longer seems capable of attracting, her accession to power has
suddenly come to look like a real possibility. While the
presidential contest will not be held until November, the present
campaign will be crucial to its outcome.

So, if Ms. Megawati's supporters do emerge in a dominant
position after Monday's polls, her prospects will have to be
taken more seriously, with all that may mean for the future of
this huge and volatile nation.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong