Golkar vote may be at risk in S. Sulawesi

Andi Hajramurni, The Jakarta Post,Makassar, South Sulawesi

South Sulawesi has for decades a Golkar haven in terms of garnering votes, consistently gaining well over 50 percent of the vote. The party can count on its loyalists here to win both the general election and the presidency -- as long as the party leadership heeds the tendency toward pragmatism and the ethnic sentiments of its supporters.

Golkar's conviction that it can still win the hearts of most of South Sulawesi's five million eligible voters is largely based on the view that it is only Golkar which has delivered on its promises -- even though others may say it has never had real competition.

But sources say Golkar may not win if chairman Akbar Tandjung is named the party's presidential candidate.

A number of regency offices of the Golkar Party, a provincial executive of the party said, "have said they would not support Akbar Tandjung in his bid for the presidency".

The executive, who declined to be named, confirmed assessments here that the party might even lose many potential votes if Akbar was named Golkar's presidential candidate.

Golkar loyalists are also proud of locals who have made it to the top. And a leading son of the province, former president B.J. Habibie, is perceived to have been betrayed by Akbar.

This is a main reason for locals' distancing themselves from Golkar apart from the fact that Akbar was charged with misappropriating Rp 40 billion in state funds, though he has been acquitted by the Supreme Court.

The speaker of the legislature is also perceived to have stepped on the toes of fellow contenders in Golkar's convention, particularly a leading woman from South Sulawesi, Marwah Daud.

But it was Habibie who raised the province to national stature. As former president Soeharto's closest aide, he succeeded the latter as the country's first non-Javanese president from East Indonesia, where people felt marginalized under a government that had gobbled up a larger part of the benefits from their natural resources.

The former Golkar patron also played a crucial role in bringing Islam to the center of the political arena.

Earlier this month supporters of the provincial branch of the Muslim-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) began a movement to collect a million signatures to support Habibie for the presidency.

Golkar's main contenders are the Muslim-oriented parties in the predominantly Muslim province. The new United Democratic Nationhood Party (PPDK) also has potential -- it champions regional autonomy and its founders are other natives of South Sulawesi -- former minister of regional autonomy Ryaas Rasyid and political scholar Andi Alifian Mallarangeng.

But apart from the Akbar and Habibie factor, Golkar plays the cultural card well, drawing loyalty through the local party elite who are nobility.

So while everyone else heaped criticism on Golkar the day Soeharto ended his 32-year rule, in South Sulawesi the party still won 66.5 percent of the vote in 1999, though a significant drop from the 90 percent it gained in the 1997 polls.

The party will gain immensely from the direct system of voting given the large number of old-timers among its 28 legislative candidates from South Sulawesi.

Golkar would have much more potential in South Sulawesi if Jusuf Kalla, another leading native and coordinating minister for people's welfare, is named its presidential candidate.

Otherwise, votes from the province might drift to another rival party courting Jusuf -- which at this stage may be the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).