Golkar, PPP, PDI will fade away, Amien forecasts

JAKARTA (JP): Political analyst Amien Rais has predicted the three major political organizations -- Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) -- which have dominated the political scene for years will soon disappear.

Speaking at a discussion titled Political Parties in the post- Reform Era, here, Amien expressed his belief that those contesting the next polls will all be new parties.

"I am almost sure that the three political organizations will disintegrate in line with the end of Soeharto's leadership era, he said.

"None of them will be able to regain the people's trust anymore," he explained during the discussion hosted by the Indonesian Council of Islamic Propagation Saturday.

For nearly three decades the government has kept a tight reign on political activities and only recognizes Golkar, PPP and PDI as poll contestants.

But since the resignation of former president Soeharto, the government has loosened its gripped and allowed people to form political parties at will.

President B.J. Habibie has indicated that polls will be held in May.

A team of experts is currently drafting a revision of three political laws, including a law on political parties, which is expected to be the guideline for political organizations in the future.

The growth of these new political parties and atmosphere of political openness is expected to wither the strong political hold of the three major political organizations.

Amien is one of the leading proponents of a speedy election, repeatedly asserting that Habibie's is merely a transitional government.

Pointing to the leadership crux engulfing Golkar, Amien said the dominant organization, which was one of Soeharto's bedrock supporters, would not be able to regain its past glory as its leading figures are simply not trusted by the people.

"Names, like chairman Harmoko, and deputies, like Abdul Gafur or Siti Hardijanti Rukmana are not saleable.

"Even former vice president Try Sutrisno and former minister of defense and security Edy Sudradjat will find it difficult to restore Golkar's past supremacy," he said.

Golkar is holding an extraordinary congress next month as more and more regional factions call for Harmoko to be replaced.

The names of Try and Edy have been cited as possible candidates for the chairmanship.

Golkar is also under threat of disintegration as major allies, such as the Musyawarah Kekeluargaan Gotong Royong have broken ranks and established separate political parties.

Speaking of PPP, Amien said the Moslem-oriented party is facing a similar threat of decay, especially after one of its four components, the Syarikat Islam (SI), announced its independence and established its own party, the Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party (PSII), which was an old name of SI.

He said PPP would find it difficult to compete with PSII and other Moslem-oriented parties which might emerge in the near future.

"PPP even invited me to join it," he said noting their sense of desperation.

"Yet, I still find it hard to join a party which colluded with other political elements for Soeharto's renomination and reelection in last March's General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly."

Soeharto was unanimously reelected for a seventh consecutive term in the Assembly's March 10 session. Golkar, PPP and the PDI all gave his reelection their full support.

Turning his attention to PDI, Amien maintained that it was obvious that the current government-recognized leadership would not be able to gain any popular support.

Soerjadi ousted Megawati Soekarnoputri from the PDI chair in a government-backed congress in 1996.

Megawati and her supporters have remained defiant and continued to challenge Soerjadi despite the government's disapproval.

"Megawati now has her own faction with a line of railway cars behind her," Amien said.

Soerjadi's PDI board was extremely unpopular, even among the party's traditional supporters, and only secured 11 House of Representatives seats in the 1997 general election, the worst showing in its history. PDI won 62 seats in the 1992 general election.

Moslems

Referring to suggestions that a Moslem party be formed, Amien called for such a temptation to be resisted.

He argued that it would not be a viable way to gain a substantial percentage of the vote to become a dominant force.

"A Moslem-based political party will only obtain a maximum of 20-percent of the votes in the general election. This is not powerful enough for a presidential election," he said.

"I suggest the Moslem community establishes an open party, which allows the non-Moslem community to join," he added.

Amien further argued that there should not be any limitation on the number of political parties contesting the general elections.

"Let the people decide which political parties are the best," he said.

Asked to comment on Habibie's statement that he might not run in the next election, Amien described him as "noble" for making such a declaration.

"It's difficult for us to find such a state leader, who has been in office just for a few weeks but is already unwilling to be nominated in the election," he told reporters.

He quipped that Habibie might be different from his predecessor, Soeharto, who repeatedly declined to be renominated, but later repeatedly agreed to be renominated.

"I believe that pak Habibie honestly told the truth. He was not playing cosmetic politics," he said.

Habibie said during a meeting with members of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Thursday that his mission was only to deliver a democratically elected government to the nation and not to be reelected president. (imn)