Golkar is making less than a full comeback
Golkar is making less than a full comeback
Endy M. Bayuni, Deputy Chief Editor, The Jakarta Post, Cambridge, Massachusetts
As widely predicted, Golkar won the April 5 general election for the House of Representatives by beating President Megawati Soekarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Golkar, the party that kept dictator Soeharto in power for nearly three decades until 1998, has won both the popular vote and proportionately more seats in the House, thanks to the multiseat district electoral system. The party is now back in charge -- this time with a greater claim of popular legitimacy -- and the nation must brace for the political implications of this.
Widely discredited when the Soeharto regime collapsed six years ago, Golkar has been busy fending off attacks from all sides and, at the same time, consolidating itself. It even survived a number of political scandals, including one involving chairman Akbar Tandjung, who was acquitted of corruption by the Supreme Court only last month.
Golkar's renaissance was not all that dissimilar to the return to power of many of the communist parties in Eastern Europe in the 1990s. They, too, survived the onslaught of reform, transformed themselves and won free and democratic elections in multiparty systems, some within five years of the demise of the communist-led regimes.
Warnings of a Golkar comeback were voiced as far back as five years ago, and not solely because of what was happening in Eastern Europe.
In 1999, the first free and democratic election Indonesia had held in over 40 years, Golkar lost the election to the PDI-P and therefore had to share power in a coalition with other political parties for the first time in over three decades. Golkar, which won all six pseudo-elections held under Soeharto, no longer had the monopoly. But the party, an amalgam of various interest groups of which the military had, until recently, been the most important and most powerful, still surprised many by coming second in 1999.
Akbar is probably the most seasoned politician alive in Indonesia today. In 1999, he secured the House speaker position, and Golkar colluded with other political parties to deprive Megawati of the coveted presidency. Akbar, the kingmaker, outmaneuvered her to give that job to Muslim cleric Abdurrahman Wahid, only to impeach him 18 months later, eventually giving the job to Megawati.
In the last two or three years, we have also witnessed, time and again, evidence of Golkar's political skill and prowess when many of its candidates won local elections for provincial governor and regency chief, all coming at the expense of Megawati's largely inexperienced PDI-P.
Hence, when Golkar won the general election this month, it did not come as a surprise at all. Whatever complaints we may have about the electoral system and the way it was conducted, there is no doubt about the legitimacy of Golkar's victory. Whether Golkar will carry the presidency as well in elections in July, however, remains in doubt.
The collapse of the Soeharto regime in 1998 may have discredited Golkar, but the party still had many other cards to play in both general elections it contested since then. It is still the best organized political party with a large structure that reaches down to the villages. Golkar is certainly powerful outside Java, as the April 5 votes testified. In contrast, PDI-P relied heavily on the support of its Javanese constituents.
Golkar also has the financial clout that most other parties, including the new ones, lack. With political parties and campaign finances still not subject to thorough auditing under the new electoral legislation, there is no way of knowing precisely how much Golkar raised and spent to win these elections.
The party also still owns or controls many, if not most, of the private TV stations that helped to mobilize public opinion in its favor. News about the outbreak of SARS, which stands for Sindrom Saya Rindu Soeharto (I miss Soeharto syndrome) across Java early this year, was, in all likelihood, stage-managed precisely for that purpose.
And it worked. Golkar won the election on a platform of stability, order and economic growth, elements that reminded many to the "good old days" of Soeharto's New Order regime. The party has been able to play up instability and economic stagnation under the leadership of Megawati and the PDI-P, concealing the fact that much of Indonesia's current predicament is a legacy of the gross misrule and mismanagement of the corrupt Soeharto and Golkar.
While there was no level playing field in either the 1999 or 2004 election, the other parties, especially those that put themselves in the reformist camp, have no one but themselves to blame. Five years should have been enough for them to build their own power base significantly. Instead, most were locked in petty internal struggles that undermine their own reputation and eventually their mass support.
The 2004 election results clearly showed this. All the major parties saw a decline in their share of the vote. The Muslim- based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) was one of the two exceptions, increasing its share of the vote at the expense of other Muslim parties. The other, the new Democrat Party of former security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, clearly stole some disgruntled voters away from Megawati's PDI-P.
While we may feel that Golkar has made a tremendous comeback, there are good reasons to believe that Indonesia is not going to be plunged into another era of authoritarian rule. For one, Golkar won the election on a 20 percent-plus share of the vote -- not the landslide victory it enjoyed in the six elections under Soeharto. To control the House, Golkar still has to form a coalition with other parties.
Golkar has also undergone significant changes. The party today remains an amalgam of interest groups that puts it alongside the PDI-P as one of the largest nationalist, as opposed to Islamist, parties. Unlike the communist parties in Eastern Europe, Golkar is not ideologically driven.
While it may have some historical and emotional ties with the Indonesian Military (TNI), Golkar no longer enjoys automatic support from it. In any event, the TNI as of this year will no longer have representation in political institutions, such that a formal alliance with Golkar will become irrelevant. Besides, both Golkar and the TNI carry so much political baggage from their past associations with Soeharto that they would do better to keep their distance from each other if they ever want to shed their past image and reputation.
There are enough institutional checks and balances in place today that would likely prevent a full return to the era of joint Golkar-TNI rule, even assuming that there were such an intention on the part of the two institutions.
Moreover, they still have to win the presidential election in July, a tall order in itself.
This time around, Akbar no longer has the luxury he had in 1999 when he could engage in horse-trading with other parties in the People's Consultative Assembly to give the presidency to Abdurrahman Wahid. This year, the election of the president and vice president is fully in the hands of voters. Golkar and the other parties can only nominate their candidates.
The lesson for other parties from the April 5 election is clear. They have a duty to prevent a full Golkar comeback, a possible scenario if they keep failing in future elections. The nation could live under a Golkar-led coalition government for the next five years, but for our democracy to remain healthy, other parties must emerge to challenge Golkar's position in 2009.
At the very least, we can brag that we live under an electoral democracy, a system that allows the nation to dump the party in power if it fails to perform to expectations. That is exactly what many voters did with Megawati and her PDI-P on April 5.
The writer is currently studying at Harvard University under fellowships from the Nieman Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the Asia Foundation.