Gold Under Dual Pressure, Prices Could Enter Danger Zone

According to Refinitiv data, gold prices stood at $4,543.55 per troy ounce as of 7:05 am WIB on Monday, 1 June 2026, up 0.15% from Friday’s trade on 29 May. This figure aligns with a tight consolidation range between $4,400 and $4,500 over recent days, with minimal price changes. Gold price movements are projected to be heavily influenced by a series of global macroeconomic data and developments in US-Iran peace negotiations this week. Market participants are currently focused on the release of key economic indicators and statements from central bank officials that could determine the short-term direction of the precious metal. This sideways movement trend indicates investor caution in decision-making amid uncertainty over benchmark interest rates. Fundamental Factors and Geopolitical Impact US-Iran peace negotiations are a key sentiment pressuring gold prices. The extension of a 60-day ceasefire has reduced gold’s status as a hedge asset, which was previously accumulated during heightened crisis escalation. Commercial shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, though not yet to pre-crisis levels, easing geopolitical risk premiums that previously pushed up gold prices. This fading fundamental pressure is expected to continue restraining near-term gold price gains. Beyond geopolitical factors, markets are awaiting key data releases from developed nations. Speeches by US Federal Reserve officials are expected to provide further clues on interest rate expectations. US inflation in April at 3.8% has eroded market expectations of imminent rate cuts, reinforcing real yields as a ceiling for gold prices. Additional data releases, including global manufacturing and services PMIs, EU GDP figures, and US non-farm payrolls, will be crucial indicators for market direction. Despite short-term pressures, physical demand from official institutions continues to support prices at the lower end. Financial institution Goldman Sachs maintains its gold price projection of $5,400 per troy ounce by end-2026, based on continued accumulation by global central banks. Goldman Sachs’ internal tracking model estimates central bank purchases reached 66 tonnes in January, a sharp increase from the previous estimate of 12 tonnes. Technical Analysis and Price Support Levels From a technical perspective, gold price movements currently indicate a downtrend after forming a double top resistance around $4,584 to $4,590. Failure to breach these peak levels has triggered selling pressure, pushing prices toward lower support. Spot prices are currently moving within a broader downward trend from the monthly peak of $4,719. The nearest support level to watch is $4,518, with potential further declines to $4,502 and a short-term target of $4,462 should the main support level be breached. Conversely, if gold prices reverse, resistance levels would be at $4,558, followed by $4,578, and a significant peak at $4,590. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 59, indicating a neutral position but with a downward bias. Market participants are advised to anticipate potential volatility early in the week, especially if prices break below the current consolidation range’s lower boundary.