Gold Prospects until 2026: Review of US Inflation and Central Bank Policies

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Global gold prices are gradually strengthening amid high demand for safe-haven assets. The rise in gold prices follows a series of recent weaknesses due to concerns over rising inflation and benchmark interest rates stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. In assessing future gold price movements, several factors can be observed. He urged the public to focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). This is because high inflation data could hinder the chances of the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate. High benchmark interest rates would make gold, as a non-yielding asset investment, less attractive. “Weak employment data could be a consideration for the Fed to implement monetary easing,” he told Kompas.com on Tuesday (31/3/2026). The public can also monitor bond yields or treasury yields. Wahyu stated that when US bond yields fall, gold’s attractiveness increases. “Purchases of gold by central banks worldwide, especially China, have been a very strong fundamental support for prices in recent years,” he said. Citing Reuters, several US economic data releases are scheduled for this week, including job openings data, retail sales, the ADP employment report, and nonfarm payrolls. These data are of interest to investors to understand the direction of future interest rate policies. Meanwhile, US gold futures contracts closed up 0.7 percent at $4,557.50 per ounce. For note, gold prices have fallen more than 14 percent throughout March 2026. This decline places gold on track for its worst monthly performance since 2008. Nevertheless, the strengthening of gold prices is heavily influenced by global economic conditions, particularly developments in the Middle East conflict and the policies of the United States Federal Reserve (The Fed).