Gold Prices Surge Again, New Chapter of the Gold Rally Begins

Jakarta - Gold prices have surged sharply following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the start of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The weakening of the US dollar, also triggered by developments in the Middle East, has kept gold prices elevated. According to Refinitiv, gold closed at US$4,828.3 per troy ounce, up 0.85% in Friday’s trading (17/4/2026). This closing price is the highest in the last four days. This strengthening breaks the negative trend of gold plummeting for two consecutive days prior. Over the week, gold prices rose 1.7%, meaning gold has now strengthened for four consecutive weeks. Iran announced on Friday morning that the Strait of Hormuz is open and is expected to remain so during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, scheduled to last 10 days. In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump stated that Israel is prohibited from bombing Beirut. International media also reported that the US will meet with Iran this weekend, with hopes of reaching a final agreement to end the war. Commerzbank analysts believe that the hope of the war ending alleviates concerns that central banks must respond to high inflation risks with tighter monetary policies, which typically increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. The gold party is set to begin again. Following these diplomatic developments, markets are starting to believe that the Federal Reserve has a chance to cut interest rates soon in 2026. Based on the CME Group monitoring tool, the majority of investors expect the rate cut to occur in December. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s strength against major world currencies, fell to 98.098. Global gold purchases are converted in US dollars, so a weakening dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Fundamentally, gold’s outlook remains strong. Global demand remains solid, supported by central bank purchases, investors in China and India. Additionally, risks of a weakening global stock market could increase interest in diversifying into gold.