Gold Prices Suddenly Surge Again, Jumping Over 2% in 24 Hours
Gold and silver prices have surged after US non-farm payroll data came in weaker than expected, dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year.
According to Refinitiv, gold prices closed at US$ 4,122.80 per troy ounce on Thursday (2/7/2026), marking a 2.3% increase within just 24 hours. This strengthening extends a positive trend for gold, which has risen 2.8% over two consecutive days. The closing price also represents the highest level since 22 June 2026.
By Friday (3/7/2026) at 06:10 WIB, gold prices stood at US$ 4,125.47 per troy ounce, up 0.07%. Simultaneously, the US dollar index weakened by 0.5% to 100.856, its lowest in nine days. This condition makes precious metals traded in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies.
David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, stated that the weaker-than-expected employment data reduces the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates again this year. “Lower-than-expected job creation figures indicate a diminishing probability of interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year. As we know, gold tends to perform better in a lower interest rate environment,” he noted, as reported by Reuters. “Consequently, the gold market recorded a significant rally following the release of the data.”
Reports from the US Department of Labour showed the American economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below economists’ projections of 110,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. A day earlier, reports also indicated that US private sector job growth in June was lower than anticipated.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at 51%, down from 66% before the employment data was released. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that both inflation expectations and inflation risks have decreased in recent weeks, though he reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation down to the 2% target.
Meanwhile, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported that central banks were active again in increasing gold reserves in May. According to recent data, global official gold reserves saw a net increase of 41 tonnes during that month.
Regarding geopolitics, Iran and the United States concluded their latest round of indirect negotiations on Wednesday without showing significant progress towards sustainable peace.
Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, noted that gold prices are currently in overbought territory according to various indicators, suggesting a need for a consolidation phase. “If the fourth-quarter trend of a weakening US dollar, declining stock markets, and falling bond yields continues, gold has the potential to break higher,” he said.
Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer, stated that gold price movements in currencies other than the US dollar are primarily influenced by the performance of those currencies against the dollar. “We see the gold market in a long-term recovery phase driven by the normalisation of market sentiment, a weaker US dollar, and a return of investment interest,” he said.
Increasing investor interest in gold is also reflected in the holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, which rose to 795.31 tonnes, the highest since early August.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, assessed that recent market volatility proves gold remains an effective safe-haven asset capable of reducing investment portfolio volatility. “Gold prices are moving in line with expectations during this period of uncertainty, strengthening alongside declining expectations for Fed rate hikes next year and weakening stock markets,” he remarked.