Gold Prices Remain Volatile: Brace for a Wild Week

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — Global gold prices have been volatile amid a stronger US dollar, rising US government bond yields and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) interest-rate outlook.

According to Refinitiv, gold closed at US$4,165 per troy ounce on Friday (16 October 2026), down 0.13% on the day. It fell 0.69% over the week.

At 6.23 am WIB on Monday (19 October 2026), gold was up 0.25% at US$4,175.27 per troy ounce.

Gold this week: fall or take off?

The latest movements make gold’s outlook for this week difficult to predict. In a Kitco News survey, only 33% of respondents expected prices to rise. A further 17% forecast a decline, while 50% expected gold to move sideways or said they would stay on the sidelines.

Bears warn that inflationary pressure and the possibility of Fed rate rises could drag gold prices lower again.

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said gold could continue to correct, as its price chart points to a downward trend. Nevertheless, he remained optimistic and identified US$4,000 as the most important support level.

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior analyst at FxPro, meanwhile, forecast that gold could reach US$4,400–US$4,500 per troy ounce in the coming weeks.

He said political uncertainty in the US ahead of the midterm elections could boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

That forecast is not yet the market consensus. Half of Kitco News survey respondents instead expected gold to move sideways or preferred to wait for developments before taking a position.

US inflation poses a threat as gold could correct again

Inflationary pressure is making the outlook for gold more complicated.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.3% month on month in September 2026, its biggest increase since March 2022. Producer inflation reached 6.3% year on year, its highest level since December 2022.

Energy prices were the main driver. Energy prices for final demand rose 10.8%, while petrol prices surged 20.3%.

The data have heightened concerns that the Fed may need to maintain tight monetary policy, and could even raise interest rates further.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at investingLive, said market expectations for the Fed’s rate path might be too optimistic. In his view, the latest inflationary pressure is a serious issue that markets have not fully priced in.

This presents a threat to gold. As an asset that pays no interest, gold tends to come under pressure when interest rates and bond yields rise.

Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at StoneX Bullion, also warned that there was no strong signal to confirm that gold’s correction had ended. Although prices had held around US$4,100, he said resistance levels above remained relatively strong.

Key level: US$4,000 as the line of defence

Technically, US$4,000 is a key level for market participants.

Although a rebound remains possible, gold needs to hold above support and break through nearby resistance to strengthen its bullish outlook.

The Fed to determine gold’s direction

Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have also influenced gold’s movements. Markets interpreted them as offering no clear signal of a rate rise in October, reducing expectations of an imminent increase.

According to CME FedWatch data cited in the report, most market participants expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in October. However, the probability of a rate rise in December is estimated at around 90%.

The US dollar and government bond yields will also be decisive. A weaker dollar and falling yields could give gold room to rise. Conversely, a resurgent dollar and higher yields could weigh on the precious metal.

Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management said he was neutral on gold this week. He said prices were still moving around US$4,200, without a strong enough catalyst to determine their next direction.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, also expected gold to be little changed and remain within a limited range.

With inflation still high and the Fed’s policy direction uncertain, gold is expected to remain highly volatile. The market is now watching to see whether US$4,000 can provide a base for the next rally or instead mark the start of a deeper correction.