Gold Prices Predicted to Range Between Rp 2.57 Million and Rp 2.8 Million per Gram Next Week
Gold prices are forecast to move between Rp 2.57 million and Rp 2.8 million per gram next week, according to currency and commodities observer Ibrahim Assuaibi. The prediction comes as the precious metal continues to fluctuate below the Rp 3 million per gram mark, a trend observed over the past three months. World gold prices closed at 4,119 US dollars per troy ounce this week, with domestic prices at Rp 2.65 million per gram. Ibrahim detailed that if a correction occurs, the first support level for world gold is 4,023 US dollars per troy ounce, translating to Rp 2.64 million per gram, with a second support at 3,906 US dollars per troy ounce, or Rp 2.57 million per gram. Conversely, if prices strengthen, the first resistance level is seen at 4,214 US dollars per troy ounce (Rp 2.68 million per gram), with a potential peak at 4,348 US dollars per troy ounce (Rp 2.8 million per gram).
In the energy sector, world crude oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are expected to trade between 62.30 and 82.20 US dollars per barrel next week. Ibrahim noted a high probability of a price decline, but warned of a potential sharp rebound. The US dollar index is projected to strengthen, trading in the range of 99.90 to 102.30. Consequently, the Indonesian rupiah is forecast to weaken, moving between Rp 17,870 and Rp 18,300 per US dollar, which in turn is expected to support higher domestic gold prices.
Ibrahim identified four key factors driving commodity and currency fluctuations: geopolitical tensions, US political developments, US central bank policy, and supply and demand dynamics. A critical geopolitical development is the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US strikes on Iranian targets. This closure is expected to severely disrupt oil transportation starting Monday. Additionally, ongoing sporadic attacks between Russia and Ukraine, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil installations, are reducing Russian oil production and are likely to further bolster crude oil prices.