Gold Prices Poised to Rise as Investors Monitor US-Iran Peace Deal
The movement of gold or precious metal prices continues to remain below Rp 3 million per gram amid easing escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Analysts predict that gold prices next week will move in the range of Rp 2.5 million to Rp 2.88 million per gram.
At the close of trading this week, global gold prices stood at 4,209 US dollars per troy ounce. Meanwhile, precious metal prices closed at Rp 2.71 million per gram.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts that if global gold prices undergo a correction, the first support level will be at 4,058 US dollars per troy ounce. Precious metal prices are estimated to be at Rp 2.61 million per gram.
“If it continues to correct, the second support level is at 3,929 US dollars per troy ounce and the precious metal price at Rp 2.5 million per gram,” he said on Sunday (14/6/2026).
Meanwhile, if global gold prices strengthen, the first resistance level is at 4,394 US dollars per troy ounce. Precious metal prices are estimated to reach Rp 2.74 million per gram.
“If the strengthening continues, the second resistance level is at 4,571 US dollars per troy ounce and the precious metal price at Rp 2.88 million per gram,” he stated.
In line with this prediction, Ibrahim projects the US dollar index in next week’s trading to be at a support level of 99.10 and a resistance level of 100.70.
Regarding oil price movements, he predicts oil prices will undergo a correction with a support level at 77.40 US dollars per barrel. If prices rise, the resistance level is at 94.60 US dollars per barrel.
Ibrahim explained that from a fundamental perspective, there are two factors causing fluctuations in these commodity prices: geopolitical factors and United States central bank policy.
“So, there are only two factors influencing the movement of the dollar index, crude oil, and then gold and precious metal prices,” he said.
Regarding geopolitical factors, this week US President Donald Trump conveyed that a peace agreement between Iran is scheduled to be signed this Sunday. One of the points in the agreement is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the signing.
Additionally, there is discourse on the release of Iranian funds previously frozen by the US since the Islamic Revolution. The agreement also covers issues related to nuclear reactors.
However, Ibrahim continued, many parties assess that the agreement could potentially become merely a paper deal. Technically, there is still a possibility of resistance emerging.
This is because in previous agreements, conflict resolution did not only cover US-Iran relations but also involved Lebanon and Hamas.
“I see a strong possibility that gunfire will still occur between Israel and Lebanon. This is what is greatly feared. However, this peace indication has caused oil prices to fall. If oil prices fall and then the dollar index strengthens, it means gold prices will rise,” he said.
Ibrahim stated that if the peace process is truly realised, there is potential for investors to shift their investments from the greenback to precious metals.
“If peace between the US and Iran truly occurs, and then the Strait of Hormuz is opened, it is highly likely that investors who previously invested in the US dollar will switch to precious metals as a safe haven,” he explained.
He noted that global gold or precious metal prices had previously weakened due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which drove up the dollar and oil prices, thereby impacting inflation.