Gold Prices Could Drop to Rp 2.68 Million, Here Are the Main Triggers
Gold price movements this week are expected to remain overshadowed by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the direction of United States interest rate policies. Consequently, the precious metals market may continue to face pressure.
In trading on Monday (18/5/2026), spot gold prices weakened to the level of $4,537 per ounce as of 12:00 WIB, while Antam gold prices stood at Rp 2,764,000 per gram.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that if market pressure increases, global gold prices could potentially move to the $4,444 per ounce level, with domestic precious metal prices moving to Rp 2,749,000 per gram. He further estimates the second support level for global gold at $4,307 per ounce, which would bring domestic prices down to the Rp 2,685,000 per gram level.
“Therefore, there is a possibility that if precious metals weaken, they could reach Rp 2,685,000 per gram,” Ibrahim told the media on Monday.
Nevertheless, Ibrahim believes the opportunity for gold price appreciation remains open given the ongoing volatility in global conditions. The second resistance level is estimated to be at $4,796 per ounce or near $4,800 per troy ounce. At that level, precious metal prices are projected to rise to Rp 2,880,000 per gram, though he noted that reaching the Rp 2,900,000 level would be extremely difficult.
Ibrahim explained that the primary factors influencing gold price direction are geopolitical developments in the Middle East, specifically the tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran, as well as discussions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. If an agreement is reached and the US is no longer involved in the conflict, the market could stabilise. However, if the Iran-Israel conflict continues to escalate, gold prices could strengthen due to increased demand for safe-haven assets.
“But if America continues to intervene, the direction of global gold prices will reverse, and precious metals will experience a decline. It all depends on the situation and conditions moving forward,” he said.