Gold Prices Battered, Latest Forecast Adds to the Horror
Gold and silver prices have tumbled, breaching the psychological level of US$4,000 per troy ounce. The decline was triggered by a strengthening United States (US) dollar and growing expectations that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (The Fed), will raise interest rates again.
Citing Refinitiv data, gold closed at US$4,000.42 per troy ounce in trading on Wednesday (24/6/2026), plunging 2.63%. This drop extended gold’s misery, with the metal collapsing 4.53% over two consecutive days. Yesterday’s closing price was also the lowest since 7 November 2025, marking a seven-month low.
Gold prices recovered slightly today. On Thursday (25/6/2026) at 06:44 Western Indonesia Time (WIB), gold strengthened 0.27% to US$4,012.09 per troy ounce, having briefly touched US$3,997.43 per troy ounce upon opening until around 06:35 WIB.
The strengthening US dollar makes gold, which is traded in the currency, more expensive for holders of other currencies, thereby suppressing demand. Market participants are also increasingly convinced that The Fed will raise interest rates again this year after the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone in its latest policy meeting. Inflation concerns stemming from the Iran war have also reinforced these expectations.
“The market is now beginning to price in a rate hike as early as September. The Fed’s hawkish stance, the US dollar’s surge to a 13-month high, and declining inflation expectations are putting significant pressure on precious metals,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. He added that gold has a support level below US$3,900 per troy ounce, while central bank buying is still ongoing, making the chance of a deeper price collapse relatively small. “However, gold is likely to enter a fairly long period of consolidation because the asset is currently losing its appeal in the eyes of investors,” he said.
Gold tends to be less attractive when interest rates rise because it does not offer a yield. Spot gold prices had previously hit an all-time record high of US$5,594.82 per troy ounce in late January. Since then, the price has corrected by more than US$1,600 per troy ounce.
ING analysts have also slashed their gold price projections. They now estimate the average gold price will be US$4,300 per troy ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and US$4,600 per troy ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. Previously, ING had projected prices of US$4,850 and US$5,000 per troy ounce, respectively.
Investors are now awaiting the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Thursday, which is The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. According to Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, additional hawkish signals from Fed officials or economic data supporting a rate hike could potentially increase the pressure on gold prices.