Gold Price Outlook for Final Week of May 2026
Gold prices are expected to fluctuate but trend downward in the final week of May 2026, with projected movement between Rp 2.65 million and Rp 2.9 million per gram. Global gold prices closed at $4,506 per troy ounce this weekend, while domestic prices settled at Rp 2.77 million per gram.
Currency and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that, technically, if gold prices weaken, the first support level is at $4,414 per troy ounce and the second at $4,333 per troy ounce. For domestic gold prices, the first support is Rp 2.75 million per gram and the second at Rp 2.65 million per gram. If gold prices strengthen, the first resistance level is $4,606 per troy ounce and the second at $4,943 per troy ounce. For domestic prices, resistance levels are Rp 2.79 million and Rp 2.9 million per gram.
“So domestic gold prices have support at Rp 2.65 million per gram and resistance at Rp 2.9 million per gram,” Ibrahim said on Sunday, 24 May 2026.
The US dollar index is projected to remain above 100, with support at 97.60 and resistance at 101. Crude oil prices are expected to move between $92.60 per barrel support and $105.50 per barrel resistance, suggesting WTI crude oil may continue to rise.
Ibrahim explained several fundamental factors driving gold price fluctuations next week, which also affect crude oil and the dollar index.
“Geopolitical tensions have reignited, particularly in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine, with Ukraine launching attacks on Russian territories,” he said. “Ukraine is acting with third-party weaponry, and there are indications the conflict will not lead to negotiations or a ceasefire since Russia holds 20% of Ukrainian territory and will not return it. This ongoing war targeting oil refineries will drive up crude oil prices, hence my prediction of oil reaching $105.50 per barrel and the dollar index at 101.”
Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East and peace talks between Iran and the US-Israel remain unclear. Negotiations are ongoing with some hope, as US President Donald Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding for a peace deal has mostly been negotiated with Iran, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Pakistan’s military that the US is not being truthful. Iran accuses the US of not respecting national rights regarding uranium enrichment, and the US is reportedly rejecting the memorandum of understanding on this issue.
Israel continues its attacks on southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, exacerbating Middle Eastern tensions and keeping the dollar index and oil prices above 100.
“Regarding US Federal Reserve policy, Fed President Thomas Barkin’s latest speech indicated current policies are well-positioned to respond to ongoing shocks while maintaining control over long-term inflation expectations,” he explained. “This offers hope that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by year-end if inflation remains controlled.”