Gold Price Forecast This Week: Beware of a Plunge Below US$4,000!
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Approaching the start of August, global gold prices are once again under pressure and edging closer to the psychological level of US$4,000 per troy ounce.
The strengthening of the United States (US) dollar and rising expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rates are the main factors burdening the precious metal’s movement.
According to Refinitiv, gold prices in Monday’s trading (3/8/2026) stood at US$4,075.17 per troy ounce as of 07.01 WIB, having risen 0.85%.
The gain was welcome news after gold prices slumped 1.5% in the final trading session of last week, on Friday (31/7/2026).
Gold prices rose 0.69% last week. In July 2026, gold gained 0.84%, ending a weakening trend spanning the previous four consecutive months.
On a technical basis, gold’s short-term trend remains bearish after failing to hold its position above the US$4,100 level.
Pressure on gold emerged alongside the revival of the US dollar and US Treasury yields.
Market sentiment has also been influenced by the heating up of the US–Iran conflict after Washington launched a retaliatory strike against Iran following an attack on US forces in Jordan.
Rising geopolitical tension typically supports safe haven assets. However, this time investors have largely been chasing the US dollar rather than gold, causing the precious metal to lose its upward momentum.
From a monetary policy perspective, the market still believes the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike has not been fully ruled out. Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has yet to give a firm signal regarding further tightening, the resilience of the US economy is keeping the market cautious.
Latest Gold Price Forecast
HSBC analysts believe the US dollar still has room to strengthen, thanks to relatively solid economic fundamentals in Uncle Sam’s country and interest rate differentials that remain attractive compared to other nations.
“HSBC stated that it maintains a neutral view on investment duration and prefers high-quality, investment-grade bonds in order to obtain attractive yields and coupon income,” HSBC wrote, as quoted by FXStreet.com.
From a technical standpoint, the US$4,000 area is a highly important psychological support. If this level is breached, selling pressure could intensify further. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance sits in the range of US$4,185.
Going forward, the direction of gold’s movement will be very much determined by developments in the Middle East conflict and market expectations regarding Fed policy.
If the central bank begins to open the door to monetary easing, or the dollar weakens again, gold prices could gain the strength to rebound.
The weakening of the US dollar index (DXY) from its previous highs should be positive sentiment for gold. However, other factors such as high real yields, Fed rate expectations, and investor positioning in the futures market are still holding back gold’s rise.
The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that speculators’ net long positions in gold have declined. This means many hedge funds and investment managers are choosing to reduce exposure whilst awaiting clearer market signals.
Dupoin Futures analyst Geraldo Kofit explained that gold’s failure to hold above the US$4,120 area is a signal that buying strength is beginning to wane.
The emergence of a swing high pattern on the short-term chart also indicates the dominance of market participants taking sell actions.
Nevertheless, gold’s medium-term prospects remain viewed positively. Demand for safe haven assets remains strong amid geopolitical uncertainty, from the Middle East conflict to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Overall, Dupoin Futures projects that gold remains vulnerable to a correction towards US$4,026 as long as it is unable to break back above the US$4,120 resistance, even though the medium-term trend is still supported by safe haven sentiment and prospects of monetary easing ahead.
“In Dupoin Futures’ technical projection, the nearest downside target lies in the 4,026 support area. This level is seen as an important zone that will determine the direction of gold’s (XAU/USD) subsequent movement,” Dupoin wrote in an email.
If selling pressure manages to push prices below that support, a further correction to lower levels cannot be ruled out. Conversely, if the 4,026 area holds and produces a strong buying response, the opportunity for a technical rebound could open up once again.