Gold Price Approaches US$4,200, Here's JPMorgan's Latest Forecast

Gold prices have improved, driven by US labour data and peace in the Middle East. According to Refinitiv, the price of gold on Monday (6/7/2026) at 06:19 WIB stood at US$4,187.29, strengthening by 0.3%. The precious metal is now heading back towards the US$4,200 per troy ounce level. This strengthening follows a 1.26% surge on Friday (3/7/2026), with gold prices rising 2.2% over the course of last week. The rally in gold prices was triggered by a sharp slowdown in US hiring in June. The price increase is considered reasonable for the time being as the market reduces expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (The Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants now see a 54% chance of a rate hike in September, down from 66% before the employment data was released. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. JPMorgan has revised its gold price forecast, cutting its end-2026 target from US$6,000 to US$4,500 per troy ounce. The US investment bank cited weaker-than-expected demand from major buyers and the risk of faster interest rate hikes by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, as reasons for the decision. In June, JPMorgan was still forecasting that gold would reach US$6,000 per ounce by the end of the year. The bank now projects gold will trade in the range of US$4,300 per troy ounce in the third quarter of 2026, rising to around US$4,500 per troy ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. As a reminder, gold hit a new record price in January this year, breaking through US$5,000 per troy ounce. However, in March, analysts reported that the precious metal was experiencing its longest downward trend in history. JPMorgan analysts said the main factor behind the revised forecast was lower-than-expected demand for gold. On the other hand, JPMorgan believes the risks to the new projection remain tilted to the downside. If US economic data comes in stronger than expected, the Fed could raise interest rates more quickly. Such conditions typically pressure gold prices, as the metal does not offer yields in the form of interest or coupons. Despite this, JPMorgan maintains a bullish long-term view. The bank expects gold prices to resume their upward trend starting in 2027, supported by continued strong demand from central banks and structural accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. In addition to gold, JPMorgan also projects that the average price of silver will be in the range of US$60-65 per ounce. Platinum is expected to reach around US$1,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and US$1,950 per ounce by the end of 2027. Palladium is projected to be around US$1,350 per ounce by the end of 2026 and average US$1,300 per ounce throughout 2027. The revision to JPMorgan’s forecast comes amid debate over the role of gold and Bitcoin as hedging assets. Notably, the European Central Bank reported that for the first time, the share of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has surpassed holdings of US government bonds, marking a historic shift in the composition of world reserve assets. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou previously stated that in the long term, Bitcoin has greater upside potential than gold, estimating the fair value of the world’s largest cryptocurrency could reach US$266,000. However, not everyone agrees with this view. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said that Bitcoin will never replace gold. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold is due to limited US dollar liquidity in global markets. Key levels to watch for the current gold price include a bullish scenario where if the price breaks through US$4,300 with strong transaction volume, there is potential for a continuation to US$4,800. This scenario could be triggered by a more dovish shift from the Fed or increased geopolitical tensions. In a bearish scenario, if the price falls and holds below US$3,960, there is a chance of a decline towards US$3,800 to US$3,600. This condition is likely to occur if US economic data is stronger than expected, raising expectations of more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Fed.