Gold Faces Major Test This Week, Is the Rally Over?
Gold and silver prices will face a number of threats this week. According to Refinitiv, gold closed at US$4,052.56 per troy ounce in the final trading session of last week, Friday (24/7/2026), up 0.13%. This gain was a positive note after the price had slumped 2% on Thursday. Over the week, gold still posted a 0.89% increase, snapping a two-week losing streak. On Monday (27/7/2026) at 06:24 WIB, the gold price surged to US$4,086.64 per troy ounce, a jump of 0.85%.
Last week, the gold rally began to lose steam as investors turned their attention to the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s policy, economic data, and geopolitical risks. This week is set to be a crucial determinant for gold’s direction. Markets will focus on the Fed’s meeting, the release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figure, which is the central bank’s preferred gauge.
Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Fed in September, despite expectations that rates will be held steady at the upcoming meeting. Additionally, new US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on around 60 countries are fuelling inflation concerns. Weaker economic data could boost gold by strengthening the case for monetary easing, while stronger data could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and pressure the precious metal.
On the demand side, China’s gold imports surged to approximately 173 tonnes in June, the highest since March 2024. However, overall domestic demand remains relatively weak, insufficient to sustain a strong rally. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has begun restricting retail investor trading in gold derivatives. Technically, the US$4,000 level serves as critical support, while US$4,100 is the key resistance that must be breached for further gains. The combination of the Fed’s decision, PCE inflation data, US economic growth figures, and the US-Iran conflict is expected to keep gold price movements highly volatile throughout the week.