Gold and Silver Prices Stagnate as Latest Forecasts Spark Anxiety
Gold and silver prices have remained almost stagnant despite the prospect of a ceasefire. According to Refinitiv, gold prices closed at US$4,328.59 per troy ounce on Monday (8/6/2026), representing a very slight decline of 0.005%. This weakness extends gold’s recent decline, having fallen 3.25% over two consecutive days.
Gold prices have yet to recover. As of Tuesday (9/6/2026) at 06:27 WIB, gold was priced at US$4,325.68 per troy ounce, down 0.07%. While the potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran helped precious metals bounce back from session lows, strong United States employment data has increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thereby limiting gold price gains.
US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that both Israel and Iran desire an immediate ceasefire and that final peace negotiations are underway. “We managed to bounce from the lows seen during the Asian session following news that a new ceasefire between Iran and Israel might be possible. This slightly reduced the downward pressure on prices,” said Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, as quoted by Refinitiv.
Gold traditionally serves as a safe-haven asset during conflicts. However, a peace agreement could potentially reduce inflation risks triggered by energy prices and lessen the pressure on central banks to maintain high interest rates. Higher interest rates generally act as a negative sentiment for gold, which provides no yield.
Gold price increases are also being restrained by the US dollar, which is trading near its highest level in almost two months at the 100 level. The strengthening dollar follows last week’s US employment report, which showed stronger-than-expected results, raising expectations for interest rate hikes through the end of the year. A stronger dollar makes commodities traded in US currency more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Market participants now estimate a 43% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December, a sharp increase from approximately 14% a month ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Investors are now awaiting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on Wednesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday for further clues regarding the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy.
Meanwhile, Citi has cut its short-term gold price target to US$4,000 per troy ounce from its previous target of US$4,300 per troy ounce. This revision is based on expectations of higher US interest rates this year due to the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz and high energy prices.