Godzilla El Niño Cancelled, BRIN Warns of New Disaster in West Java

The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) has confirmed that the Godzilla El Niño phenomenon is unlikely to occur this year. However, the agency has issued a warning regarding the upcoming dry season.

Head of BRIN’s Climate and Atmospheric Research Centre, Albertus Sulaiman, reminded the public and the government to remain vigilant as the dry season is expected to be longer than usual. “The 2026 El Niño is not expected to reach extreme levels. However, the dry season is predicted to last longer with below-average climatological rainfall,” Sulaiman explained, as quoted from BRIN’s official website on Tuesday (23/6/2026).

For context, Godzilla El Niño refers to a high-intensity El Niño phenomenon that can trigger extreme drought in a region. Sulaiman explained that analysis from various global climate models indicates global climate conditions are heading towards a moderate El Niño with a 27 per cent probability.

He noted that the chance of a Godzilla El Niño emerging this year is small due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) being in a neutral position, which is predicted to persist until April 2027. Furthermore, Indonesia and the Pacific region have just experienced a strong El Niño during the 2023-2024 period, meaning the ocean currently lacks sufficient energy to form a super extreme El Niño in the near future.

The increased risk of an extreme El Niño is recorded for the period from late 2027 to mid-2028. Based on a stochastic analysis approach using the Fokker-Planck equation, the probability of a Godzilla El Niño occurring reaches 40 per cent.

The peak of the current dry season is predicted to occur in August. Several areas on the island of Java, particularly in West Java, will experience very dry conditions, including Bekasi, Cirebon, Kuningan, and the city of Bandung. “Overall, the chance of a longer dry season reaches approximately 81 per cent,” he stated.