Global Oil Reserves Shrinking: Will Fuel Prices Rise?

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Global oil reserves are shrinking at the fastest rate in history amid disruptions to global oil supplies caused by conflict in the Middle East.

This situation raises concerns about rising oil and fuel prices ahead of this year’s peak summer demand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil reserves could fall to critical levels if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping lane for global oil distribution. Its closure would disrupt global oil supplies and force the market to rely on available reserve stocks.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said that so far, the market has not fully felt the impact of supply disruptions because it is still supported by commercial inventories owned by industry, government strategic reserves, and oil still on tankers in transit.

In a presentation on Exxon Mobil’s first-quarter 2026 performance, Woods explained that these reserve stocks helped cushion the impact of supply disruptions during March and April 2026.

“We expect that if this continues and the strait remains closed, we will continue to see rising prices in the market,” said Woods.

Swiss bank UBS estimates that global oil reserves stood at over 8 billion barrels at the end of February 2026. However, that figure fell to around 7.8 billion barrels at the end of April 2026.

UBS analysts say global oil stocks could fall to a record low of 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May 2026 if oil demand remains unchanged from the previous month.

In a research note dated April 30, 2026, JPMorgan analysts said that while billions of barrels of oil reserves may sound like a lot,

only about 800 million barrels are actually available without disrupting the stability of the energy distribution system.