Global oil prices slide 6% after Trump says US-Iran talks enter final stage

Global oil prices fell around 6 percent at the close of trading on Wednesday (20 May 2026) local time, or Thursday morning 21 May 2026 in WIB, after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran had entered the final stage. Referring to Reuters, Brent crude settled down US$6.26, or 5.63 percent, to US$105.02 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell US$5.89, or 5.66 percent, to US$98.26 per barrel. Trump said talks with Iran were now in the final stage, but warned that further attacks could still occur if Iran does not accept the agreement. Although there were signs of progress, some market participants and analysts remained wary of the ultimate outcome of the talks, as well as the tight global oil supply which is expected to persist even if the US and Iran reach a deal. ‘All statements like this should be treated with caution these days, but markets respond quickly and price in hopes of a resolution to the conflict,’ said John Kilduff of Again Capital. Citi analysts on Tuesday projected that Brent could rise to as much as US$120 per barrel in the short term. They said the oil market is underestimating the risk of prolonged supply disruptions. Moreover, Wood Mackenzie consultancy estimated prices could approach US$200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed until the end of the year. In agreement with that, PVM analysts saw global oil inventories potentially falling to very low levels. ‘But as has been seen lately, market participants have been relatively calm or even lulled to the potential impact of the conflict,’ wrote PVM. The spread between the Brent front-month contract and the six-month forward contract, a gauge of tight supply, stood at around US$20 per barrel. That figure was well below last month’s peak which briefly exceeded US$35 per barrel. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said several countries were starting to ease sanctions on Russian oil because the global market cannot function without supplies from that country.