Global Oil Prices Rise 5% to $95.46, Market Worried US-Iran Ceasefire May Fail

NEW YORK - Global oil prices jumped more than 5% at the close of trading on Monday (20/4/2026) or early Tuesday (21/4/2026) Western Indonesia Time, driven by concerns that the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran could potentially fail. Citing Reuters, Brent crude oil rose $5.08 or 5.62% to $95.46 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased $5.04 or 6.01% to $88.89 per barrel. The rise in global oil prices occurred after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, as well as partially halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, in Friday’s trading last week, oil prices had plunged up to 9%, the largest daily drop since 18 April 2026, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping lane open during the ceasefire period. US President Donald Trump had also stated that Iran had agreed not to close the strait again, which before the war served as a route for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. However, uncertainty has risen again. The re-escalating conflict has led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz once more. “These factors could push oil prices even higher, and even if a resolution is reached, it will be difficult for prices to return to pre-war levels because supply is unlikely to recover overnight,” he said. Tensions have also heightened after Iran stated it would retaliate against the US ship seizure, sparking fears of a return to open conflict. A senior Iranian official said the country is considering attending peace talks, but no final decision has been made. Meanwhile, Trump indicated that the ceasefire may not necessarily be extended. “Volatility will continue, but even as tensions rise, WTI prices remain below $100 per barrel and petrol prices tend to decrease,” he said. Shipping data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains very limited, with only three ships passing through in the last 12 hours on Monday (20/4/2026). In contrast, on Saturday (18/4/2026), when the Strait of Hormuz was opened, more than 20 ships were recorded crossing the route carrying oil, LPG, metals, and fertiliser. This movement marked the highest number since early March 2026.