Global Oil Prices Fall, but US Stockpiles Won't Rebound Immediately

The United States and Iran have officially made peace. US President Donald Trump stated that he has signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US-Israel war with Iran. The peace agreement between the US and Iran has led to a decline in global oil prices. This condition was also triggered by plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The reopening of one of the world’s main energy shipping routes is predicted to increase supply certainty. Brent crude oil prices fell 45 cents, or 0.5%, to US$80.51 per barrel at 06.31 GMT today. On Monday, prices had plunged nearly 5% to their lowest closing level since 4 March 2026. However, US oil stockpiles will not immediately become abundant following the peace deal. Analysts predict it will take considerable time to restore energy supplies after being halted for so long. ‘From here, it will likely take several weeks to restore tanker traffic flows. We estimate 50% of production will return by September, and 80% by December, slightly faster than previously expected,’ Morgan Stanley analysts said on Tuesday (16/6/2026). Although Trump has not yet published the contents of the agreement, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly stated that the deal between the US and Iran will end the fighting. However, it is not yet known for certain whether the conflict will truly end.