Global Oil Prices Ease, Analyst Says Pertamax Fuel Price Could Fall

The Prasasti Center for Policy Studies believes the government now has room to lower non-subsidised fuel prices such as Pertamax, following a downward trend in global crude oil prices. Prasasti’s Director of Programmes and Policy, Piter Abdullah, said world oil prices had eased to US$80 per barrel on 22 June 2026, after a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran was reached in mid-June. This price represents a significant drop from the previous level of up to US$120 per barrel, when the US-Iran conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key energy trade routes. According to Piter, the easing trend in global crude oil prices gives the government room to adjust Pertamax prices in line with market conditions, while keeping subsidised fuel targeted. “The decline in world oil prices opens up space for the government to adjust Pertamax prices. This adjustment is not a return to the old price, but a reasonable reduction following market developments. The government and Pertamina hold the calculations for the exact figure,” Piter said in a press release on Tuesday (23/6/2026). He considers the price adjustment important to prevent consumers from migrating to subsidised fuels like Pertalite. Piter believes this symptom is already visible on the ground, marked by increasingly long queues for Pertalite at petrol stations. “The lengthening Pertalite queues indicate that some consumers have already switched. If left unchecked, the limited Pertalite quota could become insufficient. Supply and demand will no longer match. The risk could lead to scarcity,” he said. Piter also stressed that the government needs to clarify the division of roles in the pricing formula between subsidised and non-subsidised fuels. He believes this principle will make the economy more manageable. “The government’s obligation is to safeguard subsidised fuel. Non-subsidised fuel should be allowed to follow market prices. That way, the public understands which prices are maintained by the government and which follow the market,” Piter said. In the medium term, he added, the government also needs to accelerate improvements to the energy mix. Piter noted that Indonesia has substantial resource capital for this. “Indonesia is very rich in energy resources, including new and renewable energy and biomass. This step can reduce fuel and gas consumption while easing the subsidy burden,” Piter explained. The government has also signalled that non-subsidised fuel prices, including Pertamax, could potentially fall again, especially if the downward trend in global crude oil prices continues. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is optimistic that weakening global oil prices will have a positive impact on domestic non-subsidised fuel prices. PT Pertamina (Persero) adjusted non-subsidised fuel prices on 10 June 2026 following a spike in world oil prices. The price of Pertamax (RON 92) rose from Rp12,300 to Rp16,250 per litre, while Pertamax Green (RON 95) increased from Rp12,900 to Rp17,000 per litre. “But I am confident that with the potential decline in world oil prices, the price of Pertamax and others will fall. Our economic growth foundation will become stronger,” Purbaya said on Tuesday (23/6/2026). He acknowledged that Indonesia faced a difficult test when world oil prices rose, but believes the country has passed that test. “We just need to improve the existing conditions,” he said, adding that with these improvements, he is confident higher economic growth can be achieved in the future.