Global Market Turbulence, Indonesian Stocks Deemed Resilient
Rising conflicts in the Middle East have sparked volatility across various global financial markets, including shifts in the dynamics of three major macro assets: the US dollar, oil, and gold. This situation is also influencing investor sentiment more broadly, including towards emerging markets such as Indonesia.
Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) Indonesia views the US dollar, oil, and gold as closely interlinked variables that play a role in shaping market directions and sectoral performance.
“A strengthening US dollar can create short-term pressure on the rupiah and capital flows in emerging markets, which may affect interest rate-sensitive and domestically oriented stocks. However, Indonesia’s relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals help dampen such volatility,” said Head of Equity at AllianzGI Indonesia, Octavius Prakarsa, in a written statement on Friday (24/4/2026).
On the other hand, Octavius explained that rising oil prices bring mixed impacts. On one side, the energy sector has the potential to deliver superior performance. On the other, inflationary pressures and fiscal burdens from energy subsidies remain factors that must be closely monitored. Meanwhile, the surge in gold prices reflects high global uncertainty and increasing risk-off attitudes among investors.
“In situations like this, we see the Indonesian stock market remaining relatively resilient, although there will be widening differences in performance across sectors,” Octavius added.
Facing these dynamics, AllianzGI Indonesia emphasises the importance of a balanced and selective investment strategy. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals, earnings resilience, and exposure to domestic growth drivers.
“Selective exposure to energy and commodity stocks can provide diversification benefits while serving as a hedge against inflation. Currently, active stock selection and sector rotation are key, as global macro dynamics will continue to drive performance differences in the stock market,” Octavius explained.