Global Institutions Begin to Slash Gold and Silver Price Forecasts

Gold and silver prices remained under pressure throughout last week, testing the patience of investors who had previously enjoyed a spectacular rally. Gold prices are also projected to struggle to strengthen.

Referring to Refinitiv, the gold price on Monday (22/6/2026) at 06:18 WIB was at US$4,156.69, down 0.08%. This weakening makes gold increasingly miserable. The gold price in the last trading session of the previous week, Friday (19/6/2026), closed at US$4,160 per troy ounce, plunging 1.15%. This decline extended its negative trend, with gold falling 3.92% over three consecutive days. Friday’s closing price was also the lowest since 10 June 2026.

The strengthening of the United States (US) dollar, the increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, and uncertainty over peace prospects in the Middle East have diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets. As a result, many investors have begun abandoning precious metals and switching to instruments deemed safer. The gold price was recorded falling to around US$4,152 per ounce on 19 June 2026, or about 25% below its record high near US$5,600 per ounce in January. Meanwhile, silver slumped to around US$64 per ounce, plummeting nearly 47% from its peak of US$121.62 per ounce.

Veteran investor and author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, admitted he has not given up on gold and silver. He said he has no intention of selling his holdings when prices fall, but rather is waiting for the right momentum to add to his position again. This sharp correction occurred after an extraordinary rally in 2025, when gold surged more than 50% and silver soared more than twofold. At that time, massive purchases by central banks and a weakening US dollar drove investors to hunt for hedging assets. However, the market direction changed after the Fed under the leadership of Kevin Warsh signalled that interest rate hikes were still possible to suppress inflation.

This condition became a negative sentiment for gold and silver, which do not offer yields. A number of analysts also assess that precious metals are now moving more like risky assets than hedging assets, making them vulnerable to pressure when global market sentiment deteriorates. In contrast to Kiyosaki, Goldman Sachs slashed its price target for the precious metals by US$500 per troy ounce. The US-based investment bank now estimates the gold price will be at US$4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, down from its previous projection of US$5,400 per ounce.

This revision was made after the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the US central bank (Federal Reserve/The Fed) increased sharply. In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh hinted at a more aggressive stance to suppress inflation, so the market now sees an 87% chance of a rate hike in December, up from 61% previously. Goldman assesses that gold still has positive prospects in the medium term, but the risk of a decline in the near term is growing. Since hitting a record of nearly US$5,600 per ounce at the start of the year, the gold price has now fallen about 27% to around US$4,100 per ounce. In fact, the precious metal has recorded three consecutive months of weakening.

Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said an interest rate hike would be a major threat to gold because the metal does not provide a yield. If the Fed actually raises interest rates, Goldman warns the gold price could fall further to US$4,400 per ounce by the end of the year. Additionally, Goldman also estimates that fund flows into gold-backed ETFs will slow down amid expectations that the Fed will only cut interest rates from mid to late 2027. This condition has the potential to reduce gold’s appeal as a hedging asset and prolong price pressure in the coming months.