Global Cooking Oil Prices Threatened with 20% Rise Due to War

Geopolitical unrest driving energy price surges is beginning to spill over into the global food market. One commodity in the spotlight is palm oil, whose price is estimated to rise by up to 20% due to surging demand, supply disruptions, and increased production costs. This pressure arises as demand for palm oil increases due to stockpiling actions, greater use for biofuel, and concerns over supply chain disruptions. In the long term, the spike in crude oil prices from the conflict is also boosting demand for palm oil as a biofuel feedstock. This dual pressure is now reflected in the market. Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts, the global price benchmark, have been climbing steadily since the outbreak of the Iran conflict and reached their highest level in April 2026 since December 2024. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reports that the global food price index rose to 128.5 points, up 2.4% from February 2026. Analyst Chong Ho Leong from Public Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur warns that global cooking oil prices could rise by up to 20%, though the full impact is expected to be felt around two months after existing stockpiles dwindle. “Global cooking oil prices could rise by up to 20%,” said Chong, quoted from Nation Thailand. Signs of price pressure are also emerging in several markets. The price increase is further supported by a surge in export demand from Indonesia and Malaysia, the two countries supplying around 85% of global palm oil needs. Malaysia’s CPO exports in March 2026 jumped 41% from the previous month to 1.6 million tonnes. The rise was driven by demand from China, the Middle East, the United States (US), and the European Union. The European Union was Malaysia’s largest buyer with a 23.4% share or around 963,000 tonnes from January to March 2026.